The Run Home: Jay Clark assesses each team’s chances of making top eight with four rounds to go

ESSENDON is one of the form teams of the competition after winning eight of their last 10 matches but can they make the finals? And what about North Melbourne? JAY CLARK takes a closer look at the fixture to predict the final four rounds.

Can Essendon make the finals? Picture: Getty

ESSENDON is one of the form teams of the competition after winning eight of their last 10 matches but can they make the finals?

The Bombers face a tough run home but it’s the opposite for the Kangaroos.

North Melbourne is 10th but they are a red-hot chance to make a shock finals appearance given their draw in the last month.

Melbourne and GWS could be playing off for fourth spot in the final round and Collingwood can still win the flag.

The Herald Sun’s Jay Clark takes a closer look at the fixture to predict the final four rounds — danger games in bold.

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SUPERLADDER: WILL SWANS WIN ANOTHER GAME?

1. RICHMOND 56 137.8%

JAY SAYS: It’s the Tigers’ flag to lose from here but Geelong will throw the kitchen sink at them in another blockbuster on Friday night. Richmond’s premiership defence has been almost faultless so far. Maybe only a key injury to Toby Nankervis, Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Alex Rance or Jack Riewoldt can stop them.

R20 v Geelong (MCG) W

R21 v Gold Coast (MS) W

R22 v Essendon (MCG) W

R23 v W. Bulldogs (MCG) W

2. WEST COAST 52 121.3%

JAY SAYS: Ordinary performance on Sunday against North puts the Eagles back under the pump. Next three games are all tough and we know the Dockers will lift for the Derby. Huge game against the Demons at home looms.

R20 v Fremantle (PS) W

R21 v Port Adelaide (AO) W

R22 v Melbourne (PS) W

R23 v Brisbane (Gabba) W

3. COLLINGWOOD 48 118.1%

JAY SAYS: We admire the Maggies and they can still come home with a wet sail despite more injuries. Matthew Scharenberg faces another year out with a third knee reconstruction which is a shattering blow for him and the club. Port the toughest match on the run home.

R20 v Sydney (SCG) W

R21 v Brisbane (Etihad) W

R22 v Port Adelaide (MCG) W

R23 v Fremantle (PS) W

4. PORT ADELAIDE 4 116.2%

JAY SAYS: It wasn’t a pretty win on Sunday but the four points will do. Challenging run home and the clash against Collingwood at the MCG may decide which of the two clubs lock in a top-four berth. Should beat a flat Adelaide next weekend.

R20 v Adelaide (AO) W

R21 v West Coast (AO) L

R22 v Collingwood (MCG) L

R23 v Essendon (AO) W

Brett Deledio and the Giants are coming. Look out.

5. GWS GIANTS 46 113.6%

JAY SAYS: Coming home like a freight train. On talent, you could argue the Giants are best-placed to challenge the Tigers on the last weekend in September. The final-round clash against the Demons shapes as one of the best games of the year and could determine who gets the double chance.

R20 v Carlton (Etihad) W

R21 v Adelaide (Canberra) W

R22 v Sydney (SS) W

R23 v Melbourne (MCG) L

6. MELBOURNE 44 127.3%

JAY SAYS: There was a lot of character in the Demons’ performance against Adelaide on Saturday night, setting Melbourne up for a top-four berth. Clayton Oliver and Max Gawn are as good as any ruck-rover combination in the game.

R20 v Gold Coast (MCG) W

R21 v Sydney (MCG) W

R22 v West Coast (PS) L

R23 v GWS Giants (MCG) W

7. HAWTHORN 44 122.7%

JAY SAYS: Get a ticket for the grudge match between the Cats and Hawks in Round 21, because it will be a beauty. The Hawks are starting to hit form after a big percentage-boosting win over Fremantle on Sunday night. Star Swan Lance Franklin might be rested by the time Round 21 rolls around.

R20 v Essendon (MCG) W

R21 v Geelong (MCG) L

R22 v St Kilda (Etihad) W

R23 v Sydney (SCG) W

8. GEELONG 44 120.3%

JAY SAYS: We will learn a lot on Friday night when the Cats attempt to upset the Tigers. A win will change the complexion of the competition and generate enormous belief within the group. Expect Gary Ablett to rise to the occasion. Could rest players in the last fortnight.

R20 v Richmond (MCG) L

R21 v Hawthorn (MCG) W

R22 v Fremantle (GMHBA) W

R23 v Gold Coast (GMHBA) W

9. SYDNEY 44 109.9%

JAY SAYS: The wheels have fallen off the Swans and it’s hard to see them winning another game from here. Lance Franklin may need to rest that sore heel which has prevented him from training all season. Injury clouds hover over Josh Kennedy and Heath Grundy as well.

R20 v Collingwood (SCG) L

R21 v Melbourne (MCG) L

R22 v GWS Giants (SS) L

R23 v Hawthorn (SCG) L

Upsetting West Coast puts the Kangaroos on the path to a possible finals appearance.

10. NORTH MELBOURNE 40 110.6%

JAY SAYS: Sunday’s win keeps North’s finals hopes alive and you have to be impressed by Paul Ahern’s growth in the midfield. North could win its final four games, capping a remarkable season at Arden St this year. Defied all odds.

R20 v Brisbane (Gabba) W

R21 v W. Bulldogs (Etihad) W

R22 v Adelaide (AO) L

R23 v St Kilda (Etihad) W

11. ESSENDON 40 102.8%

JAY SAYS: Yes, they are probably the form team in the league, but things get harder for the Bombers in the last month. They need to win at least three of the last four matches to sneak in, but their low percentage doesn’t help. It’s all on the line again this week against the Hawks.

R20 v Hawthorn (MCG) L

R21 v St Kilda (Etihad) W

R22 v Richmond (MCG) L

R23 v Port Adelaide (AO) L

12. ADELAIDE 36 98.3%

JAY SAYS: Hasn’t been a great year for the Crows and it’s hard to see them reversing the form line over the next fortnight. Do they experiment with the team to get a jump start on next season? Doubt there will be much on the line in the Round 23 clash against the Blues.

R20 v Port Adelaide (AO) L

R21 v GWS Giants (Canberra) L

R22 v North Melbourne (AO) W

R23 v Carlton (Etihad) W