Playing blockbuster semi-finals in Queensland will cost AFL $15 million
The AFL has been handed a dream semi-final weekend with four big Melbourne clubs facing off in two knockout blockbusters. But there’s one problem — no Melbourne fans can go. And that will cost the league millions.
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Melbourne’s coronavirus lockdown will hit home harder than ever for footy fans when the MCG is left vacant for the semi-finals weekend of its dreams.
The AFL is set for a shortfall of up to $15 million by the mouth-watering Geelong-Collingwood and Richmond-St Kilda blockbusters being staged in Queensland.
As many as 185,000 Victorians would have clicked through the MCG turnstiles for the match-ups between four clubs which signed up close to 300,000 members this year.
Ticket sales for the semi-finals would’ve generated about $10 million, which isn’t far from what this year’s Grand Final at the Gabba is tipped to rake in.
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The AFL is also out of pocket another few million dollars for the weekly cost of operating its Queensland hubs.
Food and beverage sales at the MCG also bring in around $2 million per blockbuster.
A crowd of 90-95,000 would’ve been expected for the Cats vs Pies semi-final and another 85-90,000 for the Tigers and Saints.
Instead, closer to 30,000 Queenslanders will attend, with Geelong playing its home semi-final at the Gabba and Richmond hosting the Saints at Metricon Stadium.
When you throw in corporate suites and corporate signage, as well as what the marquee matches would’ve done for local restaurants and pubs, it is another financial hammer blow in football’s most expensive season.
Under normal circumstances a day of festivities leading into the MCG games would’ve been a boom result for local businesses.
But the lost semi-final spectaculars are offset by the fact that the MCG would’ve been left vacant for preliminary final weekend anyway, with Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide earning hosting rights.
The last time the MCG went unused for a finals weekend, prior to the one just gone, was when Subiaco hosted both prelims in 2015.
The four week one thrillers pulled in 88,375 fans across three states, with 10,651 attending the Saints vs Dogs heart-stopper.
Capacity at the Gabba was 25,000.
The flip side of the smaller crowds is the fact that this year’s finals series shapes as the most watched in TV history.
Channel 7 said 5.2 million viewers watched week one, which was a 24 per cent spike from last year.
Collingwood president and former Channel 9 boss Eddie McGuire has forecast a 25-30 per cent spike in ratings for this year’s historic night Grand Final.
Last year’s Richmond-GWS scoreboard blowout contributed to the lowest national metro TV audience since the 1993 Grand Final.
Gold Coast chairman Tony Cochrane said his club’s TV ratings had skyrocketed by 42 per cent this year.
The AFL’s Queensland bill has blown past $60 million this year, which boss Gillon McLachlan said was on the “outer limit” of the budget.
Close to $6 million has been spent on COVID-19 tests alone.
The Grand Final will pump $18 million into Queensland’s economy, according to premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
“We’ve ended up having to use hubs for the vast majority of the season,” McLachlan said.
“People talked about 21 weeks (in hubs) and some players are going to get close to that.
“We budgeted for different circumstances, and we got them.”
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STAT THAT PROVES MCG COULD HOST GRAND FINAL
— Olivia Jenkins and Alex Gauci
Victorian footy fans gearing up for the first AFL Grand Final ever to be played outside the state in the game’s 124-year history may have been able to barrack from the sidelines this year.
With diehard supporters willing to crunch the cost of hotel quarantine in the Northern Territory to sit at the Gabba on match day, modelling suggests the unprecedented move to host the Grand Final interstate may have jumped the gun.
Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the University of South Australia Adrian Esterman said his modelling predicts case numbers to drop below five on a 14-day average by October 17, one week before the premiership on October 24.
By applying a mathematical formula to the current data, Professor Esterman said his findings can indicate the case numbers Victoria will have beyond the 14-day outlook using statistical analysis.
“My model shows that the case numbers should be around 3 on a 14-day statewide average by the time of the Grand Final,” he said.
To enter the third step of the Victorian government’s roadmap out of lockdown, there needs to be less than five cases recorded each day over a two-week period and less than five cases with an unknown source across the state.
If Mr Esterman’s estimate proves correct by the time the grand final rolls around, Victoria will have sent the match interstate with a lower daily case number than New South Wales when they allowed crowds at the NRL on August 10 amid 23 new cases.
Small crowds were allowed back into stadiums in News South Wales for the beginning of round five of the NRL on June 11 when there were three coronavirus cases recorded in the state.
The height of the pandemic in South Australia was on March 28 when they recorded 38 new cases over a 24-hour period.
When AFL and NRL fans were barred from matches across NSW until mid June, South Australia hadn’t recorded a single case between May 30 and 28 June.
While crowds were not barred completely from the NRL and AFL in South Australia, numbers were capped at 5,000 fans at Adelaide Oval.
While Professor Esterman doesn’t advocate for crowds to return in Melbourne just yet he said the data is trending towards elimination of the COVID-19 in Victoria by October.
“Suppression says we should get numbers down to 10 to 15 cases per day, but in reality most states and territories have eliminated it,” he said.
“My modelling shows we are likely to reach zero new cases on average by late October.”
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