Doubts raised over accuracy of Victoria’s coronavirus death toll
Whether people die from coronavirus or with it has been a hot topic throughout the pandemic, but one leaked letter could provide a clue.
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The accuracy of Victoria’s coronavirus death toll is being brought into question following allegations government officials attributed deaths to COVID-19 even when doctors were unable to verify a cause.
Ramsay Health Care chief executive Julia Morgan made the claim in an internal COVID-19 staff update seen by NCA NewsWire.
The correspondence was sent out on August 7, shortly after one of Ramsay Health Care’s private hospitals received a transfer of ill elderly residents from St Basil’s Home for the Aged.
“As you are aware, nine aged care patients were admitted to Glenferrie on 27 July. Sadly, four of these patients have since passed away. We are unable to verify the exact cause of their death, but the State has officially attributed the deaths to COVID-19,” Ms Morgan wrote.
When NCA NewsWire tried to contact Ms Morgan, Ramsay Health Care advised she was no longer working with the company after only stepping into the role earlier this year.
A Ramsay Health Care spokesperson said: “We have been advised to notify the Victorian coroner when a resident who transferred from an aged care facility with COVID-19 passes away in one of our hospitals.”
“When this has occurred at Glenferrie Private Hospital, a death certificate has been issued by a doctor following the notification of the death to the coroner’s office.”
The Department of Health and Human Services confirmed to NCA NewsWire that in Victoria “all deaths with a positive coronavirus diagnosis are included in the state’s toll, regardless of whether it was the overarching cause of death”.
“This reporting is consistent across all states and territories to ensure the figures are comparable across the country,” a spokesperson said.
In additional background information provided by DHHS it was mentioned that in most cases, a doctor determines the causes of death and issues a death certificate.
A death certificate may list multiple causes of death. DHHS is then notified of deaths due to coronavirus, normally by a member of the team responsible for the person’s treatment.
All deaths in Victoria with a positive coronavirus diagnosis are included in the state’s toll unless there is a clear alternative cause of death.
The reporting is consistent with Communicable Diseases Network Australia guidelines, which apply across all states and territories to ensure figures are comparable.
But Melbourne GPs say the reporting is “not accurate”.
“This is the real problem – the only way of determining the cause of death is with a post-mortem,” Dr Geoff Wells said.
“But the deceased are either cremated or buried straight away, and it’s not possible to say with certainty if they died from COVID-19 or with COVID-19.
“If someone got coronavirus and suddenly became unwell very quickly then it’s likely they died from the virus, but if they had bad underlying health conditions and died with the virus the cause of death remains uncertain.”
The Camberwell doctor said it threw the Government’s modelling into question.
“The Government is using this data to enhance the lockdown policy and it’s not accurate,” Dr Wells said.
Sunshine North GP Dr Mark Hobart said he had only signed off on one death in the past six weeks while treating about 40 COVID-19 positive patients at a nursing home in Melbourne’s west.
But he said the patient had died from a blood clot in their leg and not from coronavirus despite being positive at the time of death.
“The Victoria Government is basing its coronavirus strategy on deaths and cases numbers. From my experience in the nursing home, those dying with coronavirus would greatly exceed those dying from coronavirus,” he said.
There have been 802 deaths in Victoria since the start of the pandemic, with a large portion of those fatalities connected to aged care facilities.
When questioned this week about whether people in aged care were dying with the virus or from it, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said: “I’m not the coroner. I’ve not sought to make that judgment at any point.”
And when asked about why people in aged care were still getting infected despite strict lockdown measures, the Premier said COVID-19 was a “wildly infectious virus”.
“Whilst aged care is their home, aged care is not where the staff live. The staff live in the local community and we have community transmission and therefore the virus can spread,” he said.
Originally published as Doubts raised over accuracy of Victoria’s coronavirus death toll