Champion Data says Carlton’s Patrick Cripps unlikely to feature in Brownlow finish
HE was an inspiration for Carlton in almost every match of 2018, and Champion Data says Blues midfielder Patrick Cripps is set to be one of the talking points of Brownlow night. SEE CHAMPION DATA’S TOP 10
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PATRICK Cripps’ stunning individual season is predicted to receive no love form the umpires in Monday night’s Brownlow Medal count, according to Champion Data.
The number-crunchers expect Hawthorn ball magnet and $1.60 favourite Tom Mitchell (29 votes) to take out the prestigious award narrowly ahead of Richmond’s Dustin Martin (28) and superstar Cat Patrick Dangerfield (23).
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE CHAMPION DATA’S LEADERBOARD
Richmond captain Trent Cotchin is tipped to present the medal to teammate Martin in the event he can pull off the massive upset and claim back-to-back Brownlows next week.
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Champion Data also has Melbourne ace Max Gawn winning the battle of the superstar ruckmen in seventh place with 18 votes, one vote ahead of Collingwood big man and Herald Sun player of the year Brodie Grundy.
And West Coast’s Andrew Gaff’s contract value is tipped to receive another boost, with the North Melbourne free agency target slated to come fourth, despite missing the last three games due to suspension.
But Cripps will be one of the biggest talking points of the night, with the herculean ball winner widely rated to finish top-five and poll about 20 votes after an incredible season.
The man who won the fifth-most disposals and second-most clearances in the league is equal fourth-favourite with TAB.
But Champion Data say a major anti-climax is in store for the West Australian wrecking ball, with the club’s two-win season and his poor polling form from last year set to count against Carlton’s captain-in-waiting.
They have Cripps, 23, finishing in 29th place overall on 12 votes.
It would be a shock result, but also validate beliefs umpires strongly prefer to give the maximum three votes to the best player from the winning team.
The 195cm Cripps polled only five votes last year, but gained much more attention form the whistle blowers in 2016 when he polled 18 votes as a 21-year-old.
Champion Data believe Cripps will poll votes in the Blues’ only two wins of the season, against Essendon in Round 8 (27 disposals) and Gold Coast in Round 19 (30 disposals).
He is also tipped to poll in Round 14 (29) and Round 15 (33), but overall fall well short of most predicted tallies.
The last Brownlow medallist to come from a struggling team was former Gold Coast captain Gary Ablett when he polled 28 votes to win by one vote over current Geelong teammate and skipper Joel Selwood.
But in that year the Suns won eight games, and Ablett polled a maximum three votes in six of them.
While Melbourne’s Gawn is a $7.50 second-favourite with TAB, Champion Data tipped his brilliant onball teammate Clayton Oliver to finish one vote higher on the night, in fifth overall.
Essendon captain Dyson Heppell is also tipped to be a Brownlow bolter this year and surge up the charts with a career-high 19 votes, upstaging star teammate Zach Merrett.
Mitchell is tipped to perform strongly and poll in 10 of his first 15 games, and then surge further ahead in a three-game purple patch between Rounds 18-20.
He had 131 possessions across the three games to carve up non-finalists Carlton, Fremantle and Essendon in that streak.
But last year’s runaway medallist Martin, after a quiet start, could charge at Mitchell in the final two rounds with four goals against Essendon and 33 touches against Western Bulldogs.
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