AFL trade 2020: What is the pass mark for Carlton in 2021?
After acquiring three players who will slot straight into the best 22, Carlton has to lift. So what will be deemed a 2021 success? Jay Clark investigates.
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The 2020 AFL trade period reached a frantic climax as Collingwood dumped three stars, Geelong coughed up three first round picks for Jeremy Cameron, and the Western Bulldogs retained Josh Dunkley.
It also saw Adam Saad land at Carlton, Joe Daniher become a Lion, with plenty more player movement in between.
Here are the top 10 questions that have arisen now that the dust has settled.
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HAS COLLINGWOOD MADE A MESS OF ITS LIST?
Adam Treloar’s importance to Collingwood might have been over-estimated amid the anguish and emotion of his departure.
Clearly, the messaging around the bold list decisions has been terrible, and the seeds from a list management perspective should have been planted months ago to condition Adam Treloar, his manager Tim Hazell and indeed the fan base about the move.
But the Magpies wanted to revamp the midfield mix and build a more potent engine room.
Remember, this is the same side we have been saying can’t score and struggles to hit targets in the forward half for the past two years.
As much as Treloar was a top-line ballwinner, he is coming off an average year.
He polled four Brownlow Medal votes and finished outside the top-10 of the best and fairest amid another hamstring problem.
And they were paying him overs.
Collingwood has kept Brodie Grundy, Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury and Josh Daicos, but it meant at least one big name had to go and in the end it was two, Treloar and Jaidyn Stephenson.
The club just articulated the reasoning behind it all poorly.
WHO STANDS TO BENEFIT FROM TRELOAR’S DEPARTURE?
Forgotten man Brayden Sier has the chance to cement his position back in the Collingwood engine room after two years on the outer.
Sier shone in the 2018 Grand Final loss to West Coast, gathering 21 possessions and seven clearances.
But he has stagnated since then and a quad injury didn’t help this year.
But, clearly, he can step straight in for Treloar in the clinches, while Steele Sidebottom and Brayden Maynard are also set to receive spikes in midfield minutes.
Jordan De Goey, who will recommit for two more years, will also play forward-midfield in 2021.
De Goey has been training solidly in the off-season in a bid to hit the pre-season in top shape.
SHOULD ESSENDON HAVE GIVEN TWO FIRST-ROUND PICKS FOR JOSH DUNKLEY?
Tough call, but the answer is no.
The Bulldogs were adamant all along they wanted a first-round pick (No. 6 or No. 7) from this year’s draft and a future first-round pick for Dunkley.
But there was a very good reason why the Bombers didn’t overpay for him.
Without wanting to pop Essendon’s balloon before the season even starts, the rejuvenating Bombers could easily finish bottom four or five next season.
It means that future pick would have been a very early pick in what is already being lauded as a bumper draft.
Dunkley would have been a fine acquisition, for sure, but instead Essendon has the chance to draft two generational players inside the top-10.
In the end, a first-round and future second-round was the right offer from Essendon as the clubs attempts to complete a mini-rebuild on the run after losing Joe Daniher, Orazio Fantasia and Adam Saad.
Dunkley still wants to come in a year’s time.
HOW DOES LUKE BEVERIDGE MANAGE A JAM-PACKED MIDFIELD?
No one likes to spin the magnets more than the Bulldogs’ premiership coach and it was no surprise to hear Adam Treloar say he hit it off instantly with Luke Beveridge.
But how does he make sure all the midfielders get their lick of the ice cream?
On the surface, Treloar, Josh Dunkley, jet youngster Bailey Smith and Jack Macrae will look like they will be the mainstays in the midfield next year.
But we can expect Marcus Bontempelli to spend more time as a forward target in the same vein Dustin Martin excels in the forward half?
A big summer of goalkicking practice awaits.
Likewise, Lachie Hunter, who has been a dominant wingman, could also swing through the forward and back flanks.
Tom Liberatore’s resurrection flew under the radar this year but his minutes in the engine room are certain to take a hit.
Josh Bruce is another who could spend more time in defence next year after failing to have a big impact forward.
Expect big men Tim English and Stef Martin to split time forward alongside Aaron Naughton.
DID THE CATS GET A BETTER DEAL FOR JEREMY CAMERON IN THE END?
Geelong ended up paying less for Jeremy Cameron than what it offered up three days out from the end of the trade period.
On the Tuesday, the Cats put picks No. 13 and No. 15 on the table in a straight swap.
Together, those two picks equalled 2324 draft points, which is equivalent to pick No. 3.
But the Giants knocked it back because they wanted a third top-20 pick.
So the Cats threw in No. 20 as well, in exchange for two future second-rounders back from the Giants and Essendon.
Based on this year’s ladder positions, those two future second-rounders are picks No. 24 and No. 27.
It means the actual deal in the end saw Geelong hand over 1777 points (including an additional future fourth-rounder) which is equivalent to pick No. 6.
So the overall cost (in draft points) went from the equivalent of pick No. 3 on Tuesday to pick No. 6 on Thursday night.
GWS still played a masterful hand matching the free agency bid to make sure it received more than the pick No. 11 it would have received as free agency compensation.
WHERE DOES TOM MCDONALD PLAY NEXT SEASON?
The Demon will slim down in a bid to become the most versatile big man in the game next season.
His spot in the forward line will be taken by Ben Brown who the Demons pinched for a second-round pick from North.
Brown will play alongside Sam Weideman and Luke Jackson as part of a three-pronged forward line at Melbourne.
In defence, Jake Lever, Steve May and Adam Tomlinson will cover all bases.
It means McDonald must be ready to play either end, and potentially on the wing, as insurance next season.
The Demons tried to trade McDonald, knowing he was unlikely to be in the best 22 in 2021, but there were no takers as GWS instead opted for Jesse Hogan and Essendon welcomed Peter Wright.
WHO FLEW UNDER THE RADAR?
Adelaide might have lost Brad Crouch for a second-round pick, but in the overall scheme of things, the Crows scored a big win when the Jackson Hately deal fell through.
The South Australian onballer will walk to the Crows for nothing in the pre-season draft in a free hit for Adelaide.
The 190cm Hately was drafted with pick No. 14 only two years ago and should play 20 games for Adelaide this year, taking over from Crouch.
Adelaide has picks No. 1, No. 9, No. 22, No. 23 and No. 40, the latter it had planned to give to GWS for Hately.
It didn’t get a lot of headlines but the Hately result helps make up for any disappointment surrounding Crouch.
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM WITH JAIDYN STEPHENSON?
It was arguably the biggest bargain of the lot, when North Melbourne secured Rising Star winner Jaidyn Stephenson for pick No. 26.
He is exactly what the Roos need in the sense that he has some electric speed and polish to help liven up the forward half.
And he is the kind of goal-kicker who will help put some bums on seats as the Roos rebuild with a nice young crop including Tarryn Thomas, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Nick Larkey, Ben McKay, Cam Zurhaar and Bailey Scott.
But Stephenson also got a kick in the backside in the process, which he needs to use to help become a more dedicated and professional athlete.
It’s that training and off-field commitment that was part of the problem at the Pies and something he got plenty of feedback about.
Lots of players have needed a fresh start for the penny to drop on that front and Stephenson can be no different.
He’s an exciting addition for the Roos on the cheap.
WHAT IS THE PASS MARK FOR CARLTON IN 2021?
They must play finals next year, the Blues, after acquiring Adam Saad, Zac Williams and Lachie Fogarty, three players who will slot straight into the best 22.
While there remains a big question mark over Charlie Curnow’s knee, there is still enough firepower in Harry McKay, Mitch McGovern, Levi Casboult and Jack Martin to be a top-eight side.
But the development of pick No. 10 Lochie O’Brien, who bobbed up in trade talks, pick No. 3 Paddy Dow and pick No. 19 Liam Stocker will be a source of constant intrigue in 2021.
O’Brien is working on his contested ball, Dow experienced the yips with his kicking and halfback Stocker faces a huge challenge breaking into the side.
Ex-Cat Fogarty was a tidy pick-up in exchange for a third-round pick and round-two pick slide.
Sam Walsh may still be the Blues’ second-best midfielder next year.
WHO WILL BE UP FOR GRABS NEXT YEAR?
Essendon’s Zach Merrett and GWS Giant Josh Kelly are the two big free agents, assuming Patrick Cripps and Marcus Bontempelli both re-sign.
Expect Carlton to target Merrett and Kelly hard to help partner Cripps for a top-four tilt in 2022.
Collingwood ideally needs a prime tall target after missing out on Jack Gunston and Tom Lynch two years ago.
But the Pies also like Merrett and Hawks’ Luke Breust would also appeal after a decorated career at Hawthorn.
St Kilda will also face interesting talks on Jack Billings’ future after finishing outside the top-10 of the best and fairest this year.
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