Jay Clark explains how Joe Daniher, Brad Crouch and Jeremy Cameron will get to their new homes
Footy’s annual game of poker has started as three high-profile free agents try to find their way to new clubs. How will they get there and which deal is set to cause sleepless nights? Jay Clark goes behind the scenes.
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This is the year of the sneaky side deal.
Football’s annual game of poker will begin on Monday as six clubs jostle over the futures of three star players.
Jeremy Cameron (Geelong), Brad Crouch (St Kilda) and Joe Daniher (Brisbane) have all chosen new homes to reignite their careers.
And what looms as the biggest test yet of the game’s controversial compensation system, there is already significant dispute over what the clubs should give up and receive for each of these best and fairest winners.
Interestingly, each negotiation could be nutted out differently.
But one thing is certain. The Cameron transfer stands out at as the most difficult negotiation only 12 months after his brilliant Coleman Medal season.
The deal-breaker in the Daniher situation could be his boosted salary, as the Lions perhaps fork out a little more to secure Essendon first-round compensation.
And Crouch looks like the most straight-forward item.
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But the Cameron exchange will be the one which looks set to cost the most sleep.
The Herald Sun revealed last week the league warned that clubs should not expect to be “fully compensated” for the departures of their superstar free agents after eight years’ service.
The compensation picks, the league said in the memo, was more of a “relative” return than perfect match.
It is a memo that went down like a lead balloon and might yet be completely disregarded at Greater Western Sydney, Adelaide and Essendon who all still want the full quid in exchange for their gun players.
They’re already talking tough, and well within their rights, to match bids.
But that is precisely the reason why 2020 might be the year of the free agency side deal.
While the clubs might be blunt with each other in zoom calls over the next 48 hours, it’s the cards being passed under the poker table which really count.
But more on that a bit later.
There is a glass case in the corner of the trade room which says break in case of free agency emergency.
If the bids are matched by November 6, and a trade can’t be struck by the November 12 deadline, the player then goes into the pre-season draft and hopes like hell he gets to the club he had originally nominated.
This is by far the least desirable and least likely option that would cause the most gut ache.
In theory, the AFL and AFL Players’ Association wouldn’t want a gun player such as Cameron heading to another club against their wishes.
While this is where some of the bluff comes into it, history says it doesn’t happen.
Not for a free agent since 2012, anyway.
Cameron would be more likely to go fishing for a year than play at another club he didn’t pick, sources said.
So, how do these deals get done?
Get your box of popcorn ready.
DANIHER DEAL
The biggest shortcut in the Daniher deal is his wage.
Ideally for Essendon, Brisbane pays Daniher a bumper salary in excess of $700,000 a year which triggers the No. 7 pick as compensation for the Bombers.
That way, Essendon gets the early first-round pick it wants for Daniher and the Lions get to keep their two end-of-first-round selections at picks No. 18 and No. 19.
The Lions have some salary cap room and were planning to pay Daniher upwards of $600,000 a season, anyway, over about five years.
So some extra cream on top of his pay packet looms as a win-win outcome that both clubs could try to be targeting here.
Certainly, it is what the Bombers and Daniher would be hoping for, and Essendon has shown it is willing to make a strong stand after keeping Daniher to his contract last year.
If they had to, Essendon could start talking to GWS about a Plan – B trade to straight swap Daniher to the Giants for Cameron, but only if the Lions didn’t pay first-round compensation salary.
Daniher, 26, was paid between $700,000 to $750,000 at Essendon this year and is confident he has overcome his career-threatening groin problems.
If he went in the draft, there is a risk the GWS Giants and the Swans would entertain picking him, and the Lions don’t want that headache in a premiership window.
Daniher might not have provided great value on the field over the past three seasons, but there could yet be a happy ending to his time at Essendon.
With picks No. 6 and No. 7, the Bombers could try to package them together in return for pick No. 1 (Adelaide) or No. 2 (North Melbourne) to secure prized WA key forward Logan McDonald.
CROUCH DEAL
At this stage St Kilda is not prepared to pay Brad Crouch more than $7000,000 to trigger the No. 2 pick the Crows desperately want.
The midfielder was caught by police with an illicit substance at season’s end and demand for his services dropped-off at Geelong, Richmond and Port Adelaide.
An end-of-first round compensation pick would slot in for the Crows about No. 20. It seems about right for a player who finished outside the top-10 of the best and fairest from 12 games this season.
But this transaction might not stop there.
The Saints have pick No.15 and want to keep it, but could be willing to off-load South Australian onballer Luke Dunstan, and contracted pair Jimmy Webster and Dylan Roberton to help clear some salary cap room and satisfy Adelaide.
It means the Crows could get pick No. 20 as free agency compensation, then separately, secure Dunstan or one of the other two from the Saints on the cheap for a later pick as an added bonus.
St Kilda is open-minded about trading some of its players. Dunstan, who was injured, played only one game this year, while Roberton only managed one and Webster none after playing just eight games in 2019.
The Crows have four picks inside the top-25 of this year’s draft including the No. 1 selection.
If they wanted to play hard ball with the Saints, Adelaide could threaten to trade Crouch for Orazio Fantasia, but that seems highly unlikely.
Salary cap room will be important for the Saints as they plan to have another crack at Gold Coast’s Ben King next year.
CAMERON DEAL
This one appears the hardest nut to crack of the three, and people close to the deal are still uncertain which way it goes.
Trenches are being dug, as we speak.
In a nutshell, the Giants are slated to receive pick No. 10 as free agency compensation.
It is a selection the Cats strongly believe the Giants should accept for a man who will be 28 early next season.
But GWS want more, and will bank on the Cats pulling off a similar deal to the Dangerfield transaction with Adelaide in 2015.
In that deal, the Cats gave up No. 9, No. 28 and Dean Gore, who never played, for Brownlow Medal winner Patrick Dangerfield.
To solve the impasse, the Giants could accept pick No. 10 from the AFL as free agency compensation and then the Cats could help look after the Giants in another way, if they can.
Had GWS not already committed to Braydon Preuss, perhaps ruckman Rhys Stanley could have been the man to help solve the Giants’ ruck issues in a win-win trade.
It is why Esava Ratugolea, 22, and 202cm Cat Sam De Koning, 19, loom large for the Giants, even though the Cats have no plans at this stage to release them.
But there could be another three-club solution involving Fremantle’s Jesse Hogan.
The Cats could send gun young defender Jordan Clark to the Dockers in exchange for a high-end pick swap.
In turn, the Dockers give Hogan to GWS on the cheap. It means the Giants essentially receive pick No. 10 as free agency compensation and key forward Hogan for Cameron.
While a lot of due diligence must be done to see if Hogan can fit in at GWS, and he may not, it is the kind of solution that might be required to suit both parties.
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Out-of-favour Melbourne big man Tom McDonald is another option.
The Cats won’t want Cameron falling into the pre-season draft as Essendon and Sydney Swans, in theory, could both entertain taking him for nothing.
Geelong is adamant it won’t give up multiple first-round picks for Cameron, but the Cats will be pushed to satisfy the Giants in another way.
GWS wants to make a stand after another wave of player departures as it attempts to secure more money in its salary cap to make up for higher house prices in Sydney.
Seventy per cent of the Giants list hails from interstate.