AFL great Mick McGuane’s updated ladder prediction for the 2022 season
Carlton’s coming. The Blues have had an incredible start to the season — their best in a decade. But Mick McGuane isn’t a believer. Here’s why.
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With five rounds of evidence now on the table, leading football analyst Mick McGuane has updated his end-of-season ladder prediction.
It’s no surprise to see the reigning premier – Melbourne – still on top.
But Mick has shuffled a few other positions around and has made some big calls on who will miss the finals cut.
1. MELBOURNE
The Demons were my pre-season pick for this year’s premiership and remain a clear flag favourite.
After Round 5, they are undefeated and have a bumper percentage of 155.9.
Continuity has been the key, with only 27 players used so far.
Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Steven May have again been consistent performers and the ruck combination of Max Gawn and Luke Jackson has evolved.
Together, the big men have kicked 10 goals between them this year.
There doesn’t appear to have been any complacency that has crept in, with the Demons still the hardest runners in the competition.
The side has been able to cover the absence of important players — including Ben Brown, Jake Lever and Christian Salem — and has maintained its tag as the hardest team to score against.
Melbourne is averaging just 59.8 points against this season and is the second-best side at defending turnovers, allowing its opposition to score an average of just 27.6 points a game.
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2. BRISBANE
The Lions look headed for a fourth top-four finish in as many years.
Like Melbourne, they have only used 27 players so far.
Key forward Eric Hipwood is expected to return mid-season in what will be a huge boost for a side that is already the highest scoring team in the competition, averaging 100.2 points a game.
Joe Daniher (16 goals) has had an outstanding start to the year and Darcy Fort has proven a handy recruit.
Midfielder Lachie Neale is in peak condition and has started the season on fire, averaging 32.4 disposals as well as setting a standard with his pressure and tackling.
The Lions have dare in their play with their use of the corridor and they are the best team at moving the ball from defensive 50 to their attacking 50.
3. SYDNEY
From 16th in 2020 to sixth last year, the Swans are on track to continue their rise this season.
Their stellar conversion is setting them apart, having kicked 74.31 so far.
Sydney’s turnover game has also been a highlight and has the profile of a top-four team.
The Swans are scoring 61 points a game from turnover (ranked third) and 30.4 points a game from forward half intercepts (ranked fifth).
Isaac Heeney (14 goals) has been outstanding and Tom Papley will add further offensive venom when he returns.
Recruit Paddy McCartin has reinvented himself and reminds me of Heath Grundy with his work down back. His intercept marking ability is a bonus to the team.
Long-time midfield staple Josh Kennedy is no longer being relied on, which highlights the evolution of players like Callum Mills, James Rowbottom, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden.
It’s an exciting time to be a Sydney fan.
4. FREMANTLE
The Dockers were a disappointment last year.
Their turnover game was poor and they weren’t scoring consistently.
That’s all turned around this season.
Fremantle has clearly become a very hard team to play against and that shows in their percentage of 141.7 – the second-highest behind Melbourne.
Defensively, the Dockers are conceding just 61.4 points a game (ranked second) and conceding a score from just 37.8 per cent of opposition inside 50s (ranked third).
They also have the best points differential from turnovers of any side with +188 points. That’s an astonishing improvement but it’s a reflection of all the hard work the coaches and players put in over the summer.
That is a very sustainable profile that stands up in finals.
Andrew Brayshaw has been exceptional through the midfield and works hard both ways, while Will Brodie is rejuvenated and leads the side for contested possessions by 23.
The big question will be where Nat Fyfe plays when he returns from injury.
I’d like to see Justin Longmuir use him more forward to complement Matt Taberner and Rory Lobb and use him sparingly with maximum impact as an onballer.
5. ST KILDA
The Saints can go a long way with the well-rounded game they have developed.
Their strengthened team defence has been building in front of our eyes since the second half of last season.
Their often undersold defence — led by Dougal Howard, Callum Wilkie and Josh Battle — is tough to penetrate and at the other end of the ground the Saints are scoring freely.
They are averaging 99.2 points a game (ranked second) and are registering a score from 51.4 per cent of their inside-50s (ranked first).
The move of Jack Sinclair into the midfield has been a coaching masterstroke by Brett Ratten and has added some much needed class and creativity.
St Kilda has improved its forward-half game and has talls and smalls hitting the scoreboard.
Max King (16 goals) and Tim Membrey (11 goals) are beacons in front of the ball and Jack Higgins (10 goals) and Dan Butler (five goals) are getting to work at ground level.
Jade Gresham is the X-Factor and the type of midfield-forward weapon every team is searching for.
6. GEELONG
They’ve had an up and down start to the season, but Geelong will again be in the mix when the whips are cracking in September.
The Cats’ fixture opens up over the next six weeks, starting with North Melbourne in Tasmania and then three of their following five games at GMHBA Stadium.
Their potency as a team still centres around their ability to score when they go forward.
Geelong is averaging 95.8 points a game this season (ranked fourth) and is scoring from 48.1 per cent of its inside 50s (ranked second).
That’s little surprise when power duo Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron have kicked 28 goals between them and smalls Tyson Stengle (eight goals) and Brad Close (seven goals) have added extra spice to their forward line this year.
The room for improvement lies in contested ball and ground ball for the Cats, with these areas being a weakness in their Easter Monday loss to Hawthorn.
What was once a consistent strength is now a concern. Time to adjust and get ruthless again.
The lack of a super competitive ruckman also continues to hold Geelong back.
Rhys Stanley is athletic but can he be trusted in crucial moments?
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS
They’re out of the top-eight now, but I’m backing the Bulldogs to get going after a slow start.
Over the next six weeks they face Adelaide, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast and West Coast.
They should be winning most – if not all – of those games.
Goalkicking has been the side’s Achilles heel in the early rounds — albeit it was better against North Melbourne on Good Friday.
They are averaging 86.4 points a game despite having the third-worst shot at goal accuracy in the competition of 44.9 per cent.
A strong and deep midfield group is headlined by Jack Macrae, Josh Dunkley, Bailey Smith, Adam Treloar, and Marcus Bontempelli.
Bontempelli must be set for more time in the forward line after the success against the Kangaroos and if he does, Tom Liberatore simply has to be put back where he does his best work at centre bounce.
He is a specialist when it comes to first possession wins and would work with Smith perfectly at centre bounces.
The Bulldogs still have a healthy front half game and that builds pressure on the opposition.
Their time in forward half differential this season is +9min 12sec, ranked 3rd in the competition.
8. RICHMOND
I’m holding the faith with the Tigers — for now — in the hope that Damien Hardwick can get to work and restructure a leaky defence.
The Richmond defence across the ground has clearly been its biggest issue — and Hardwick knows it.
Their pressure factor of 177 — which is ranked 12th in the competition — isn’t going to cut it.
Nor is conceding a score from 48.2 per cent of opposition inside-50 entries (ranked 17th) or allowing 90.6 points against a game (ranked 12th).
We haven’t seen the Tigers sliced apart defensively like they have been this year in a long time.
I’d push two players who have started the year forward back into defence — Noah Balta and Liam Baker to help shore up that area until Dylan Grimes returns.
The acid really needs to be put on the midfield group as well to provide great pressure when the time presents.
The last thing the Tigers would want to be classified as is a “response team” and that’s what they’ve been so far this season as they have been up and down like a yoyo.
The playing group has got it in them to have another finals tilt — if they consistently bring strong effort. Banking wins now is important considering Grimes, Kane Lambert are almost over their injuries and hopefully the return of Dustin Martin isn’t too far away.
With the talent still at their disposal, anything less than a top-eight finish for Richmond would be a wasted opportunity.
JUST MISSED
The teams I expect to be just behind Richmond in the hunt for 8th place
CARLTON
I’ve loved the combative nature the Blues have played with this year and Michael Voss has his fingerprints all over their new look brand.
They have the best contested possession differential in the competition of +16.2 and are averaging 36.4 points from stoppages, ranked sixth in the competition.
However, I’m still concerned about their team defence, scoring profile and their ball use at times.
Opposition sides can still open up Carlton with momentum swings in games and kick multiple goals in succession, as we witnessed in the second half against Port Adelaide last weekend.
Percentage is a great indicator and the Blues might be 4-1 but they only have a percentage of 102.6 per cent.
That goes to show that win-loss ratio could have looked significantly different.
The recruitment of George Hewett has been vital and the combination of Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow in attack is formidable.
There is a lot to like, but I’m still not sold just yet.
Overcoming the odds and beating Fremantle at their own turnover game on Saturday night will go a long way to changing that.
HAWTHORN
The way the Hawks are going about their ball movement under next coach Sam Mitchell is exciting.
They are the fifth-best team at moving the ball from defensive 50 to inside 50 this season and are scoring 40.4 points a game from their defensive half – ranked first in the competition.
Those back half scores aesthetically look great, but it’s not sustainable.
What is also not sustainable is conceding an average of 55 inside-50s to the opposition each week (ranked 13th) – despite how well the Hawthorn defence has been holding up.
The Hawks have found some quality young players, including Josh Ward and Jai Newcombe.
They also have a backline group that they can build their future around with the likes of Will Day, Denver Grainger-Barrass, James Sicily, Jack Scrimshaw and Changkuoth Jiath.
But some September action might be at least another year away.
TOSSED OUT
The teams I had in my pre-season top-eight which I no longer think will play finals.
PORT ADELAIDE
As the competition’s only winless team at 0-5, it’s hard to see how the Power resurrect their season from here.
They would likely need to win 12 of their next 17 games just to squeeze into the top-eight.
Port was much better in the second half against Carlton last week, with their strong forward-half and turnover game returning.
That second-half fightback would give the playing group an injection of confidence and they should get their first win on the board against West Coast at the Adelaide Oval this weekend.
But it’s an uphill battle ahead, especially with two of their most important players in attack – Charlie Dixon and Orazio Fantasia – still on the sidelines.
ESSENDON
The most disappointing aspect about the Bombers is they continue to be smashed around the footy, which puts an undersized defence under enormous pressure.
Jayden Laverde stood little chance against Fremantle’s Matt Taberner last weekend with the quick ball movement coming in that even Matthew Scarlett would have struggled to defend.
The best teams in the competition focus on getting field position and the way you get that is a real appetite for the contest in the middle of the ground.
Essendon is failing at that far too often.
The Bombers’ contested possession differential is -17.8 (ranked 18th) and their clearance differential is not much better at -7.4 (ranked 17th).
With the talent they’ve got in that area of the ground, there is no way they should be putting up those numbers.
The effort is simply not there from Essendon at the moment and it’s evident in their pressure and tackling numbers. Their reluctance to chase with intent is also noticeable.
The Bombers pressure factor this season is 172, ranked second-last in the competition.
Among the top 70 players in the AFL for tackles this season, Essendon does not have a single representative.
That’s damning and it’s no surprise with what they’ve dished up so far this season to see them currently sitting 15th on the ladder.
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