AFL 2023: Mick McGuane predicts how the ladder will look after the bye rounds
The Blues and Tigers are two teams in flux and the bye rounds look to inflict more pain on both sides. See Mick McGuane’s take on every team and how he has the ladder sitting after the byes.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Does the ladder lie?
The next month will test the theory as the AFL enters its four bye rounds.
It won’t be until after round 15 that we again get an even picture of where all the teams and finals contenders stand once every side has had their mid-season rest.
A string of upsets last round has opened things up, but there are a few teams at the pointy end already looking comfortable in the top four.
Casting an eye forward to the end of round 15, this is how I see the ladder shaping up at the conclusion of the bye rounds.
And it’s bad news for the reigning premiers, who are one of the biggest sliders, while St Kilda and Carlton also drop.
1. COLLINGWOOD
Round 12 – v West Coast, Optus Stadium W
Round 13 – v Melbourne, MCG W
Round 14 – Bye
Round 15 – v Adelaide W
The Magpies can win all three games through the bye round period to solidify their position at the top of the ladder. The top-four should be a lock for the Pies, who have a favourable run home. They face four current top-eight teams in the final eight rounds. Their defensive profile is the best in the league, they are only giving up an average of 69 points per game. That’s on the back of the rock-solid defence led by their skipper, Darcy Moore. They have got a star factor with Jordan De Goey and the two Daicos boys. I love the diversity in their forward 50 and their overall conversion is strong.
2. BRISBANE LIONS
Round 12 – Bye
Round 13 – v Hawthorn, MCG W
Round 14 – v Sydney Swans, Gabba W
Round 15 – v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium W
Brisbane can emerge with three wins through the bye rounds to improve its ladder standing. I have them moving up one place to second. Their run will start with a win over Hawthorn at the MCG, which they need to start rehearsing for a September assault. The Gabba is a fortress so beating the Swans is most likely and they can beat St Kilda at Marvel on a fast track. Josh Dunkley has given their midfield a hard edge, which complements the talent they’ve already got in there. The Lions have got so much potency as a forward group, as they’re not reliant on one or two players. They have got the capability to kick big scores, particularly at home. They have a healthy percentage and that can grow.
3. PORT ADELAIDE
Round 12 – v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval W
Round 13 – v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium L
Round 14 – v Geelong, Adelaide Oval W
Round 15 – Bye
The clash against the Bulldogs could be a tough assignment at Marvel Stadium, but Port should account for Hawthorn, and Geelong at home. The Power should have Charlie Dixon and Todd Marshall back before their bye, which adds scoring strength. Port Adelaide’s game is in very good shape at the moment and there is upside to come. Since round 4, Port has been the competition’s hardest team to score against when opposition teams go inside 50 and they are ranked No.1 for forward-half intercepts. The reason why they are a top-four team is because their pressure is outstanding. They are the No.1 pressure team in the competition and structurally they are in sync. The ruck is the only area of concern.
4. MELBOURNE
Round 12 – v Carlton, MCG W
Round 13 – v Collingwood, MCG L
Round 14 – Bye
Round 15 – v Geelong, GMHBA Stadium W
The Demons’ next three games are going to be significant. They can win at least two of those, starting with a victory over Carlton. Collingwood will be hard to beat on King’s Birthday, but the Cats are gettable in round 15 after the Demons have their bye. The reason why I like them for a top-four spot is their ability to score. The Demons are the No.1 in the competition for points scored, averaging 100.9 points per game. Their turnover game is also very healthy. One thing that Simon Goodwin must address is conceding scores from stoppages. They need to be better structurally because they have conceded the fourth-most points from clearance. This is putting too much pressure on their backline. Harrison Petty must stay back because he helps Steven May and Jake Lever play their best intercept game.
5. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Round 12 – v Geelong, Marvel Stadium L
Round 13 – v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium W
Round 14 – v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium W
Round 15 – Bye
The Bulldogs can win at least two of their next three matches. Port is going to be a harder challenge, but certainly not unwinnable at Marvel Stadium. I’m tipping them to move up a spot on the ladder by the end of the byes. The Dogs are a hard team to score against once the ball enters the opposition’s forward 50. That is a real strength of theirs at the moment. But they are still allowing teams to transition far too easily from D50 to forward 50 and this must improve in the run home. One other change the Dogs should make is with Rory Lobb. I don’t like the experiment of him as a winger, keep him forward – that’s what he was recruited for. He will be called on to ruck at times, but when he’s on the ground and not rucking, keep him forward. That will help Aaron Naughton and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. That’s a must for them to increase their scoring profile.
6. ADELAIDE
Round 12 – v Gold Coast, TIO Stadium W
Round 13 – v West Coast Eagles, Adelaide Oval W
Round 14 – Bye
Round 15 – v Collingwood, MCG L
Mark the Crows down for wins against the Suns and Eagles, but the ladder-leading Magpies should have their measure at the MCG. Matthew Nicks has got a very solid team, strong down back and a hard-working midfield. The forward line, which is their point of difference, is creative and manipulates the space as well as any team in the competition. They are the No.1 scoring team per inside 50 in the competition, which tells us they are a highly efficient team once the ball goes in there. As defenders, if you snooze, you’ll lose against the Crows. I love what Nicks has done with Jordan Dawson to move him up around the ball to compliment Rory Laird – that has been a fantastic decision.
7. ST KILDA
Round 12 – Bye
Round 13 – v Sydney Swans, SCG L
Round 14 – v Richmond, MCG W
Round 15 – v Brisbane Lions, Marvel Stadium L
It might be harsh on the Saints, but they might only win one game through these bye rounds. The Swans can get them at the SCG, they’ll beat Richmond at the MCG and the Lions can get them at Marvel. By the end of round 15, I have got the Saints slipping two spots to seventh on the ladder. Defence before attack, that’s their philosophy, that’s Ross Lyon’s way. They are No.2 in competition for points against and they defend their own turnovers as well as any team. They just need to find a way to score more than they do. Once all their best forwards are healthy and become available their scoring profile will improve significantly.
8. ESSENDON
Round 12 – v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium W
Round 13 – v Carlton, MCG W
Round 14 – Bye
Round 15 – v Fremantle, Optus Stadium L
The Bombers have got a healthy fixture across the bye period and in the run home, so there should be no excuses. They are in total control of their own destiny and finals footy is realistic and achievable. They’ll beat North, I’m confident they will defeat Carlton, but Fremantle on the road is a big challenge. But the Bombers can head west refreshed and rejuvenated to chase a third win in this important month of football. Peter Wright’s return is imminent and he will help bolster their attack. Nik Cox is also almost ready to resume. Essendon’s forward-half game can be as potent as anyone when their best personnel is available for selection.
9. FREMANTLE
Round 12 – Bye
Round 13 – v Richmond, Optus Stadium W
Round 14 – v GWS Giants, Giants Stadium L
Round 15 – v Essendon, Optus Stadium W
The Dockers have got two home games after their bye in a critical three-week period. I think they will clearly win two, but there’s a question mark over GWS on the road. Fremantle’s past four weeks have been impressive. Wins over Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and a season-defining victory over Melbourne at the MCG puts them back in finals contention. So where has the change come from? They are getting more speed on their ball with their ball movement. That was a No.1 priority and they have made that adjustment. They are No.1 for points scored in the last month, which is compelling.
10. SYDNEY SWANS
Round 12 – Bye
Round 13 – v St Kilda, SCG W
Round 14 – v Brisbane Lions, Gabba L
Round 15 – v West Coast Eagles, SCG W
Sydney should emerge from this bye period with two out of three wins. I’m tipping them to beat St Kilda at home, Brisbane at the Gabba will be a tough assignment and they’ll win against the Eagles at the SCG. An aspect of their game that must improve is their ability to win clearances. They are ranked No.17 in the competition for points conceded from clearance even with the talent they have at their disposal around the football. With an undermanned defence, their midfield must rectify this issue. Gaining territory from clearance wins also ensures strong field position which is what the best teams do.
11. GOLD COAST
Round 12 – v Adelaide Crows, TIO Stadium L
Round 13 – Bye
Round 14 – Carlton, MCG W
Round 15 – v Hawthorn, Heritage Bank Stadium W
Gold Coast can grab eight points across the bye rounds, coming off the rest to take wins against Carlton at the MCG and Hawthorn at home. The Suns have a headstart against Adelaide given they played in Darwin last week, handling the conditions well. But that clash could be a make-or-break game for them. Will the Suns play finals? Not for mine, but what will help them get there is how they compete. The Suns are a strong contested ball winning team and also rank highly as a reliable stoppage team. The Sherrin gets slippery in Darwin and the ball will live on the ground, so winning the contested ball will be paramount.
12. GWS GIANTS
Round 12 – v Richmond, Giants Stadium W
Round 13 – v North Melbourne, Blundstone Arena W
Round 14 – v Fremantle, Giants Stadium W
Round 15 – Bye
If the Giants can show the effort and hunger they displayed against Geelong, they can make a rapid rise up the ladder. I’ve got them moving up two places on the back of three wins across the bye rounds. They will beat Richmond at Giants Stadium, take the points over North in Hobart and the Dockers at home. GWS should make an all-out assault in this next four-week period because they are all winnable games. Nick Haynes will be back to play against the Kangaroos. Harry Himmelberg is about to return and he has got more to offer their attack, complementing skipper Toby Greene, Jesse Hogan and unsung hero Brent Daniels.
13. GEELONG
Round 12 – v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium W
Round 13 – Bye
Round 14 – v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval L
Round 15 – v Melbourne, GMHBA Stadium L
The Cats have got a tough draw. In the short-term, the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium won’t be easy, then they have their bye and the soldiers will probably start to return. But it doesn’t get any easier. They head to Adelaide to face an in-form Power before returning home to tackle Melbourne. Missing key personnel has not helped the Cats’ indifferent form. Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan and Gary Rohan on the sidelines has been costly. With some reinforcements, the Cats could beat the Bulldogs, but they could be 0-3 after this period with the draw they are facing as well. Don’t worry about the back end of the draw, this next month for the Cats is critical if they intend to defend their crown.
14. CARLTON
Round 12 – v Melbourne, MCG L
Round 13 – v Essendon, MCG L
Round 14 – v Gold Coast, MCG L
Round 15 – Bye
Carlton is staring down the barrel of a winless next month. I don’t give them any points and have them slipping to 14th. The Blues are struggling and they have got injury concerns. They won’t be good enough against Melbourne or Essendon, and will struggle to get past the Suns on current form as well. The Blues just can’t score at the moment. They are averaging only 76 points over their season, but scores of 59, 57 and 51 in the past three weeks just is not good enough. Where has their ability to score gone with two Coleman medallists in front of the ball and a pretty strong midfield group? It’s got to come back to their inability to convert. They have kicked 21.41 in their last three games.
15. RICHMOND
Round 12 – v GWS Giants, Giants Stadium L
Round 13 – v Fremantle, Optus Stadium L
Round 14 – v St Kilda, MCG L
Round 15 – Bye
It’s fair to say the way the Tigers are tracking, they will lose all three unless their injured spearhead Tom Lynch makes a remarkable return. The biggest issue for Richmond is that they can’t score at the moment. They are in the bottom six in the competition for points scored, bottom six for points scored from a turnover and bottom six for scores per inside-50. That’s not a profile to make you rapidly rise up the ladder.
16. HAWTHORN
Round 12 – v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval L
Round 13 – v Brisbane Lions, MCG L
Round 14 – Bye
Round 15 – v Gold Coast Suns, Heritage Bank Stadium L
It looms as a winless month for the Hawks with clashes against two top-four teams and a testing road trip to Queensland. I don’t give Hawthorn any points in the next three games, but they have been good to watch of late. They are handball happy and are embracing this sharing of the ball concept. They have changed the way they play, which is good coaching on the run. The Hawks are the No.1 ranked team in the league for rounds 6-11 for using the corridor out of their backline, which is great to see.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Round 12 – v Essendon, MCG L
Round 13 – v GWS Giants, Blundstone Arena L
Round 14 – v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium L
Round 15 – Bye
No movement here. Matches against two top-eight opponents plus the GWS Giants doesn’t scream wins for the Kangaroos. Brett Ratten, as caretaker coach, has got his players competing reasonably well but will still be stuck on eight points after the bye period. In a season of few positives, their attack of Nick Larkey, Cam Zurhaar and Jaidyn Stephenson has been more than serviceable. Larkey has been a beacon, he has taken 28 inside-50 marks, so he is certainly delivering, which is a positive for a young key forward.
18. WEST COAST
Round 12 – v Collingwood, Optus Stadium L
Round 13 – v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval L
Round 14 – Bye
Round 15 – v Sydney Swans, SCG L
This is a club that has been decimated by injury. They have really had to go to the well. With the players they’ve had out, it’s not hard to see why the Eagles have been rudderless in their performances. They’ve lost a total of 126 matches to injury this season and that’s the most of any team and the reason why they’re sitting on the bottom of the ladder. They won’t win any games in the next month to improve their standing unless some of their more experienced senior players return to the fold, and even then that’s not a given.
‘Idiot’: Cornes fires shots at NRL Grand Final
There has been a fierce backlash after AFL great Kane Cornes took a swipe at the NRL Grand Final “disaster”.
Trade live: Young Magpie officially asks for trade to South Australia
Trade period is officially underway, and a young Magpie has made his intentions clear – he wants to head to South Australia. Follow day 1 LIVE.