AFL 2022: Every club’s run home and ladder predictor ahead of Round 18

Suddenly, Richmond’s finals hopes hang in the balance after its horror loss to the Suns. Here is what needs to happen for the Tigers to make the eight.

Geelong has taken top spot on the ladder and looks like staying there. Picture: Michael Klein

The run home is heating up, with only six weeks to go in the home-and-away season.
Some sides let some chances slip in Round 17 when it comes to securing top-eight and top-four finishes, while other sides kept their faint finals hopes alive.

We’ve taken a look at every finals contender’s run home to try and determine who might finish where.

1. GEELONG (12-4, 136.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $4, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.08

R18: Carlton (MCG) W

R19: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R20: Western Bulldogs (GMHBA) W

R21: St Kilda (GMHBA) W

R22: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R23: West Coast (GMHBA) W

Predicted finish: 1st

They might not be favourites with the bookies, but last Thursday’s triumph over reigning premier Melbourne solidified the Cats’ spot as the competition’s No. 1 seed right now. The Cats have now won seven-straight games and face only one more top-eight side in the run home – that being Carlton this week. Star defender Tom Stewart won’t return until Round 20 due to suspension, but the side is otherwise close to full-strength as it chases a second minor premiership in four years.

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Geelong took top spot on the ladder back from Melbourne last weekend. Picture: Michael Klein

2. MELBOURNE (12-4, 133.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $3.30, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.20

R18: Port Adelaide (TIO) W

R19: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R20: Fremantle (Optus) L

R21: Collingwood (MCG) W

R22: Carlton (MCG) W

R23: Brisbane (Gabba) L

Predicted finish: 4th

The Dees are in a spot of bother, with the reigning premiers having won just two of their past six matches. The real worry is who their losses have come against, though. Melbourne has gone 2-4 against top-eight sides this season and faces four more September-bound teams in a tough run home. The backline was exposed against Geelong last week and the forward line isn’t functioning well at all. Coach Simon Goodwin has some work to do to turn around the fortunes and try and lock in a top-two spot.

3. FREMANTLE (12-4, 123.8%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $8, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.30

R18: Sydney (Optus) W

R19: Richmond (Marvel) W

R20: Melbourne (Optus) W

R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R22: West Coast (Optus) W

R23: GWS (Manuka) W

Predicted finish: 2nd

The Dockers’ past six weeks have been as good as any team. They have won five matches during that period, including victories over Melbourne, Brisbane, St Kilda and Port Adelaide. Fremantle has a few more challenges to come over the next three weeks with matches against three more top-eight sides. However, the final three weeks look a little easier as the Dockers search for some momentum heading into their first finals series since 2015.

4. BRISBANE (11-5, 124%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $10, Top 8: $1.07, Top 4: $1.80

R18: GWS (Manuka) W

R19: Gold Coast (Gabba) W

R20: Richmond (MCG) W

R21: Carlton (Gabba) W

R22: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R23: Melbourne (Gabba) W

Predicted finish: 3rd

The Lions lost their first home game of the year against Essendon on Sunday in a blow to their top-two hopes. Brisbane was forced to make nine changes for that match on the back of injury and a fresh Covid-19 outbreak which is spreading through the club. The impact of that outbreak will be an interesting watch over the next week or two. The Lions have three more home games, but also face four more teams in the top half of the ladder, plus a dangerous Gold Coast Suns side.

Zac Fisher’s Carlton side still looks unlikely to finish top-four. Picture: Getty Images

5. CARLTON (11-5, 116.8%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $12, Top 8: $1.10, Top 4: $3.75

R18: Geelong (MCG) L

R19: GWS (Marvel) W

R20: Adelaide (AO) W

R21: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: Collingwood (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 6th

The Blues powered to a big 63-point win over West Coast on Sunday to continue a seven-week period where they have alternated wins and losses. Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay each kicked five goals in that win and both sit in the top-10 of the Coleman Medal race. The Blues’ injury crisis is easing at the right time of year. However, a tough run home still awaits, with four top-eight opponents still to play starting with ladder-leader Geelong this week. Top-four, therefore, looks unlikely.

6. COLLINGWOOD (11-5, 106.3%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $21, Top 8: $1.25, Top 4: $6

R18: Adelaide (AO) W

R19: Essendon (MCG) W

R20: Port Adelaide (MCG) W

R21: Melbourne (MCG) L

R22: Sydney (SCG) L

R23: Carlton (MCG) L

Predicted finish: 7th

Richmond could learn from its arch rival on how to win the close games. The Magpies are in seventh heaven, having won seven-straight matches after Saturday’s seven-point win over North Melbourne. Five of the wins over that period have come by 11 points or less, including the past three. Collingwood should make it eight-straight wins this week, given it beat Adelaide by 42 points back in Round 2. They have already beaten Essendon, Melbourne and Carlton earlier this season.

7. SYDNEY (10-6, 120.5%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $15, Top 8: $1.10, Top 4: $2.75

R18: Fremantle (Optus) L

R19: Adelaide (SCG) W

R20: GWS (SCG) W

R21: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R22: Collingwood (SCG) W

R23: St Kilda (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 5th

The Swans swept aside the Western Bulldogs by 53 points last Friday night but remain a hard side to trust given their up-and-down form over the past two months. They have a tough task ahead this week against Fremantle in Perth, but there are some winnable games ahead after that. The door to the top-four would be wide open if Sydney can upset the Dockers this week, but without a win there it will be an uphill battle.

Richmond let a prime opportunity slip against Gold Coast on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

8. RICHMOND (9-7, 116.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $13, Top 8: $1.35, Top 4: $6

R18: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R19: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R20: Brisbane (MCG) L

R21: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R23: Essendon (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 8th

Last-quarter fade-outs have been costly for the Tigers this year, none more so than in Saturday’s heartbreaking loss to Gold Coast. Richmond had led by 40 points early in the third quarter, only to lose courtesy of a Noah Anderson goal after the final siren. You’d expect Damien Hardwick’s side to bounce back against North Melbourne this week and they have already beaten Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Essendon earlier this year. Top-four hopes looked dashed, but the Tigers’ spot in the top-eight still looks relatively safe for now – even with a few injury concerns.

9. ST KILDA (9-7, 104.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $67, Top 8: $3.50, Top 4: $21

R18: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R19: West Coast (Optus) W

R20: Hawthorn (Marvel) W

R21: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R22: Brisbane (Marvel) L

R23: Sydney (Marvel) L

Predicted finish: 9th

The Saints are outside the top-eight only on percentage, but don’t look like a finals side with six rounds to play. They have won just one of their past five matches – against an inaccurate Carlton a fortnight ago – and kicked just three goals in the second half against Fremantle on Saturday night in a 41-point loss at Marvel Stadium. This week’s clash with the Bulldogs is huge. Lose that and it might just about be over for the Saints, but win the next three games and the season will still be alive heading into a tough final three rounds.

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-8, 110.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $6, Top 4: $51

R18: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 11th

The Bulldogs look resigned to missing finals this year, with issues across the field. They suffered a second heavy loss in as many weeks to Sydney by 53 points last Friday night and face four more teams in the top half of the ladder over the next four weeks. The Bulldogs have conceded more than 100 points in three of their past four matches, which is not the profile of a finals side. It’s been an underwhelming year for last year’s grand finalists.

Noah Anderson’s after-the-siren goal kept Gold Coast’s finals hopes alive. Picture: Getty Images

11. GOLD COAST (8-8, 108.9%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $4, Top 4: $51

R18: Essendon (Marvel) W

R19: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R20: West Coast (Metricon) W

R21: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

R22: Geelong (Metricon) L

R23: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 10th

It’s still a longshot, but the Suns’ finals hopes are alive after a come-from-behind win over Richmond on Saturday. The side showed serious spirit to fight back from a 40-point deficit in the third quarter and score a two-point win with a lovely Noah Anderson goal after the siren. Gold Coast faces four bottom-five sides in the run home, but would still need to pinch at least one win against Brisbane or Geelong to make the top-eight cut.

12. PORT ADELAIDE (8-8, 108.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $81, Top 8: $4, Top 4: $51

R18: Melbourne (TIO) L

R19: Geelong (AO) L

R20: Collingwood (MCG) L

R21: Richmond (AO) L

R22: Essendon (Marvel) W

R23: Adelaide (AO) W

Predicted finish: 12th

The Power are still in the finals hunt for now after powering past Greater Western Sydney by 55 points on Saturday. However, it would still take something special. Port Adelaide meets four top-eight sides over the next four weeks – and would need to win at least five of its last six games to play finals. An eight-point loss to Fremantle in Round 16 might come back to bite.

FINAL PREDICTED LADDER

1. Geelong (18-4)

2. Fremantle (18-4)

3. Brisbane (17-5)

4. Melbourne (16-6)

5. Sydney (15-7)

6. Carlton (14-8)

7. Collingwood (14-8)

8. Richmond (13-9)

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9. St Kilda (12-10)

10. Gold Coast (11-11)

11. Western Bulldogs (10-12)

12. Port Adelaide (10-12)

13. Hawthorn (7-15)

14. Essendon (7-15)

15. GWS (6-16)

16. Adelaide (6-16)

17. West Coast (3-19)

18. North Melbourne (1-21)

PREDICTED WEEK 1 FINALS

QF: Geelong v Melbourne

EF: Sydney v Richmond

EF: Carlton v Collingwood

QF: Fremantle v Brisbane