US midterms are a referendum on Donald Trump’s leadership

ANALYSIS: The US midterms will test Donald Trump, but there’e an unexpected lesson from his election win that pollsters and pundits need to remember.

DONALD Trump declared his support is at the same levels as 2016 as he began his last days campaigning ahead of midterm elections that will decide whether Republicans continue to hold Congress.

Bolstered by a booming economy, solid personal polling and heightened tension over immigration, President Trump stopped in two vital states Sunday ahead of a further three stops on Monday.

Mr Trump travelled in Air Force One to Georgia, where Democrat Stacey Abrams is in a toss up with Republican candidate Brian Kemp and could potentially become the first ever black female governor of an American state.

US President Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally at McKenzie Arena, in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Picture: AFP

He later visited Tallahassee in support of Republican Marsha Blackburn, who is leading former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen by eight points in the Tennessee Senate race.

While there he urged Republicans to vote on Tuesday to ensure his agenda could continue.

“The Democrats want to turn back the clock, throw America in reverse and return power to a corrupt, selfish ruling class that only looks out for themselves. You see it happening, but we stop it,” Mr Trump.

“Our opponents are stuck in the past, while we are rebuilding and going into America’s great future.”

EXPLAINER: What’s at stake in the US midterm elections

Supporters of US President Donald Trump at the campaign rally in Chattanooga. Picture: AFP

He visited Ohio, Indiana and Missouri on Monday, local time, ending a barnstorming schedule that has taken him to 30 Make America Great Again rallies since September’s Labor Day holiday, 15 of them in the past fortnight.

“I have never seen such an enthusiastic Republican Party,” Mr Trump said.

“The level of fervour, the level of fever is very strong on the Republican side.”

Mr Trump’s campaign has sharpened its focus on the Senate in an effort to bolster the GOP’s one-seat majority.

Although polls unanimously point to Democrats taking the House of Representatives, with Republicans holding the Senate, the lesson of Mr Trump’s 2016 election win - which was a shock to most pundits and pollsters - is that nothing is certain until votes are counted on Tuesday.

Both houses comprise Congress and are currently held by Republicans.

Although midterms generally draw less voters, Donald Trump is again expected to defy the norm.

Mr Trump said he wasn’t able to campaign as strongly for the House, because with all 435 seats up for grabs, there were too many to visit.

“With so many people in Congress, with so many people in the House, it’s very hard to make those stops,” Mr Trump said.

“I think we’re going to do well in the House. I think we’re going to do really well in the Senate.”

The lead-up to the midterms has been marked by acts of violence, including a massacre at a Pittsburgh synagogue and the targeting of key Democrat figures by a mail bomber, leading to accusations Mr Trump’s campaign has stoked division.

US President Donald Trump speaks during a rally at McKenzie Arena, in Chattanooga. Picture: AFP

He denied the rallies were inflammatory.

“No, these rallies are the best thing we’ve done. I think that the rallies have really been the thing that’s caused this whole big fervour to start and to continue,” Mr Trump said.

“I have never seen such excitement. Maybe back in ‘16, during the presidential -- right around the vote.”

Mr Trump’s name isn’t on the midterm ballot, but Tuesday’s election is widely seen as a referendum on his leadership and has seen Democrat big-guns including Barack Obama and Oprah Winfrey join the campaign trail.

Although midterms generally draw less voters than general elections, Mr Trump is poised to again defy norms, with a record turnout across the board in early polls.

Almost 30 states have already surpassed their early 2014 votes, with more than 30 million early ballots cast, and some of those states have seen the same level of early votes as they received in the 2016 general election.

Tuesday’s election is widely seen as a referendum on Donald Trump’s leadership.

Democrats need to take 23 seats to win the House, and most polls point to Democrats winning about 35. On average, first time presidents with approval levels below 50 per cent can expect to lose 37 seats at midterms.

Mr Trump’s general approval ranges from 41 per cent to 46 per cent in current polls, which is consistent with much of his presidency. His approval from Republican voters hovers around 90 per cent.

Mr Trump is riding a wave of positive economic news, with more than 70 per cent of Americans rating the economy as good or excellent in a new Washington Post poll.

There were 250,000 new jobs created in October and the US currently has 3.1 per cent wage growth. Unemployment is at a 50 year low of 3.7 per cent and consumer confidence remains at an 18 year high.

Mr Trump has also energised his base with a sharp focus on the alleged threat contained within a “migrant caravan” of thousands of Central American asylum seekers currently making its way north to the Mexican border.

“We have the greatest economy ever, but you people don’t want to cover that,” Mr Trump said to reporters yesterday.

“You would much rather cover illegal immigration, which is okay for me too, because frankly, we are doing a great job at the border. Nobody else could do the job that we’re doing.

“And as you know, the Democrats want to have open borders and all of those tens of thousands of people pour into our country. That’s not going to happen.”