What’s at stake in the US midterm elections and why does it matter

MILLIONS of Americans will hit the polls with much at stake — including the possible impeachment of President Donald Trump. This is how it works.

THE US midterm elections this week are the most important vote for both parties in a decade — and it isn’t just because it will determine who will control the House of Representatives and the Senate.

If the Democrats ride a “blue wave” to victory, the party could kill the Republican legislative agenda, block Donald Trump’s court, Cabinet and executive branch nominees from being confirmed, gain new powers to investigate the Trump administration, start moves towards impeaching the president and earn the right to control the redrawing of electorate boundaries, presumably in their favour, as the Republicans did when they came out victorious in the 2010 midterms.

Trump has been holding 11 campaign rallies in six days before polls open. He has had Florida, Montana, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, Georgia, Tennessee and Ohio in his sight as he travels all over the country to secure more votes.

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US President Donald Trump arrives for a "Make America Great Again" campaign rally at McKenzie Arena, in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Picture: AFP

People protesting against US President Donald Trump amid a row over whether his fierce rhetoric at campaign rallies and on Twitter has helped stoke extremism ahead of the midterm elections. Picture: AP

WHAT’S UP FOR GRABS

All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 out of 100 Senate seats, 36 state governorships and many state government seats.

Currently, Republicans hold both houses of congress.

The party has a 236-193 edge in the House of Representatives, with six vacant seats due to resignations, and a slim 51-49 advantage in the Senate. (The Democrats technically only have 47 seats in the Senate but have two independents — Bernie Sanders and Angus King — who almost always vote with the party).

For the Democrats to gain control of both houses, they will need to hold all their seats and flip 24 Republican seats in the House and at least two seats in the Senate.

A man wears a Trump flag on his back as he waits in line for a Make America Great Again campaign rally held by US President Donald Trump in Tennessee. Picture: AFP

WAVE ELECTION?

You have probably heard people talking about this being a “wave election”. Donald Trump has predicted a Republican “Red Wave” is coming, while others suggest the Democrats are set to benefit from a looming “Blue Wave”.

While there is no precise definition of what a wave election is, it is generally used to describe when a party makes huge gains in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Wave elections tend to happen at the midpoint of a president’s four-year term, when they are not on the ballot themselves, and usually benefit the party that isn’t in the White House.

During a wave election, the close races tend to break one way because those who get out and vote are the people who are angry with the current state of the country. (Unlike Australia, voting is not mandatory in the US.)

Since the end of World War II, the sitting president’s party has had a net loss of 26 House seats and four Senate seats on average in midterm elections.

However, Mr Trump has seen a significant bounce in the polls which may help. A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 47 per cent of respondents approve of the job Mr Trump is doing as president, while 49 per cent disapprove.

The same poll found him with a 39 per cent approval rating just six months ago.

A truck drives displaying a message reading 'Vote Out Hate' in Los Angeles, California. Democrats are targeting at least six congressional seats in California, currently held by Republicans. Picture: AFP

IS A DEMOCRATS CONGRESS LIKELY?

The Democrats have a strong chance of flipping the House of Representatives, having put in a good showing in elections for seats left vacant. However, it is the Senate that will prove to be the party’s biggest challenge.

Of the 35 Senate seats being decided, 26 belong to Democrats and the two Independents, which the party will need to retain. They have a fight to hold on to 10 of their own seats in states that Donald Trump won in 2016, which are in jeopardy.

The Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, Beto O’Rourke is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz in one of the most expensive and closely-watched races in the midterm elections. Picture: Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP

That leaves only nine seats, currently held by Republicans, which the Democrats have a chance to flip.

To make things even tougher, six of those Republican seats are in states that Mr Trump won by large margins.

Republicans will also benefit from new electoral maps redrawn by Republican-dominated state governments after the last census in 2010. The party also has a good story to tell on strong economic growth and lowering unemployment.

Nevada and Arizona are probably the best shots for the Democrats to win off the Republicans.

WHAT’S AT STAKE:

LEGISLATIVE AGENDA

If the Democrats win the House or the Senate, they will certainly obstruct the Trump administration’s legislative agenda.

In practical terms that would mean Obamacare won’t be repealed, there would be no approval to build Mr Trump’s border wall with Mexico, no cuts to Medicare and social security, and no more tax cuts for big companies and wealthy individuals.

Other legislative issues likely to be stymied include immigration reform and gun rights.

But some of Mr Trump’s policies look set to influence how Americans vote — including his position on tariffs and trade. Missouri, which is set to be one of the key Senate seats the Democrats need to win, is a huge agriculture hub and is hurting from retaliatory tariffs being put on the products that it exports, especially soybeans.

A man walks past campaign signs after early voting. Picture: AFP

The sitting Republican Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri has taken the rare step of criticising Mr Trump’s tariffs on frozen meat.

A Democratic House could also start the process of trying to impeach Mr Trump.

Republicans have said if they hold onto the House and the Senate then expect to see Mr Trump’s border wall become a reality and for Obamacare to be repealed.

The Democrats won’t however be able to push through their own agenda as Mr Trump still has the power of veto with the stroke of a pen.

The outcome of a Democratic congress will likely be legislative gridlock.

COMMITTEE POWERS

The other perk of winning the House and/or the Senate is that the majority party gets to control the committees on Capitol Hill.

The Democrats would be sure to turn up the heat with regards to the Russia investigation, issuing subpoenas for key witnesses and be far more aggressive in their inquiries than the Republican-led committees have been to date.

Mounted police form outside a debate featuring former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon and conservative commentator David Frum in Toronto. Picture: AP

You can bet that the Democrats won’t just be focusing on the Russia investigation either but will likely investigate Mr Trump’s businesses, sexual assault allegations against him and hush money paid to adult entertainer Stormy Daniels and Playboy Playmate Karen McDougal.

The work of the committees can often be a fishing exercise but other times they can discover politically damaging information. While the Republican-led investigations of the Obama administration’s handling of the 2012 Benghazi attacks didn’t find any wrongdoing, it did bring to light Hillary Clinton’s email use as secretary of state, which helped ensure her defeat in the 2016 presidential campaign.

REDISTRICTING

The results of the midterms won’t just be important for this round of elections but for many more to come. The victors will be in office for the 2020 census, which happens every 10 years, and will help redraw the boundaries of congressional districts. Those new boundaries will take effect ahead of the 2022 elections and remain in place until 2030.

Supporters take photos and videos of US President Donald Trump as he speaks at the Pensacola International Airport. Picture: AFP

This is where the state races become important — 34 states will be electing governors who will hold veto power for the next redistricting.

The Republican landslide win in 2010, a census year, meant they were able to gerrymander boundaries to suit them and no doubt if the Democrats win they will redraw the lines to benefit their own party.

IMPEACHMENT

Now that Donald Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen has implicated the US President in paying hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels, the Democrats are more than likely to start impeachment proceedings against the billionaire if they win the House of Representatives.

The impeachment process starts in the House and requires a simple majority of votes to pass to the Senate. Removing a president requires a two-thirds Senate approval.

US President Donald Trump arrives for a "Make America Great Again" rally in Montana. Picture: AFP

Andrew Johnson (1868) and Bill Clinton (1999) are the only two presidents to face impeachment proceedings and in both case the Senate fell short of the two-thirds required to have either removed from office. Richard Nixon resigned the presidency in 1974 when it became clear that he would be impeached.

A president can face impeachment for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanours.”

The fact that one of Mr Trump’s senior officials wrote an anonymous op-ed in The New York Times stating that they were part of the “resistance” inside the White House, indicates that other Republicans may come out against Mr Trump.