Tom Minear: The dirty secret in Donald Trump’s NATO threat

As Donald Trump threatens to abandon America’s European allies if they are not “paying their bills”, Tom Minear argues the president-elect needs to convince his own colleagues to start spending on defence.

It’s hard not to worry about Donald Trump’s ever-present threat to abandon NATO, not when he has boasted of encouraging Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any member of the military alliance that is not spending enough on its own defences.

The hope is, however, that the President-elect’s contempt for America’s European allies is nothing more than a negotiating ploy – one which is already having the desired effect.

Last week, after Mr Trump again warned that the US would walk away from NATO if its members were not “paying their bills”, it was reported that European nations were considering lifting their defence spending target from 2 per cent to 3 per cent of GDP.

The hope is that the President-elect’s contempt for America’s European allies is nothing more than a negotiating ploy. Picture: AFP

Mr Trump had vowed to insist on that while campaigning, saying 2 per cent was “the steal of the century” for Europe.

Just six of NATO’s 32 members reached that level in 2018 – now, in response largely to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 23 are at that benchmark.

With the world facing the most perilous strategic circumstances since World War II, Europe’s leaders appear to be grasping the need to invest even more.

The question they should ask Mr Trump is this: will you do the same?

Under Joe Biden, military spending has not kept pace with inflation, amounting to an effective cut that means the US defence budget is heading below 3 per cent of GDP – the lowest level after WWII.

Mr Trump with France's President Emmanuel Macron (C) and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. Picture: AFP

This failure has been compounded by the need to direct resources to Ukraine and Israel while China’s unprecedented military build-up continues unabated.

But Mr Biden is not the only one to blame. Last week, House Republicans shut down plans by their Senate colleagues to add an extra $US25bn – for more warships, fighter jets and munitions – to the annual $US895bn defence policy bill.

Instead, they fought to include a ban on taxpayer-funded treatments for the transgender children of service members.

This is not the first time in recent years that Republicans have turned the typically bipartisan bill into a new front in the culture wars, while ignoring what is required to fight actual wars.

The party’s fiscal hawks have also regularly outflanked the defence hawks in budget battles.

Mr Trump talks a big game about bringing peace through strength.

To convince both America’s allies and enemies that he will succeed, he needs to convince his congressional colleagues to start spending. No one will take him seriously otherwise.