YouGov Galaxy poll finds voter trust down on Andrews government after red shirts saga

VOTER trust in the Andrews Government has been shattered by the rorts-for-votes scandal that has triggered a police investigation and dawn raids at the homes of Labor staff.

EXCLUSIVE

VOTER trust in the Andrews Government has been shattered by the rorts-for-votes scandal that has triggered a police investigation and dawn raids at the homes of Labor staff.

The results of an exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun reveal the crisis implicating 21 Labor MPs in the misuse of almost $388,000 has undermined public confidence in Labor’s integrity.

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The crisis implicating 21 Labor MPs in the misuse of almost $388,000 has undermined public confidence in Labor’s integrity. Picture: AAP.

A decisive 57 per cent of voters polled said they were either “much less likely” or a “little less likely” to trust the Andrews Government in the wake of the red shirts saga.

This includes almost 40 per cent of Labor voters who said they had lost some trust in the government because of the scheme.

With little more than 100 days before the November 24 election, the results will heighten anxiety within Labor about the possible impact if ministers and MPs are raided or interviewed by police.

The poll, which has Labor narrowly in front of the Coalition, also shows the potential for a hung parliament after the election.

Labor is clinging to a statewide lead of 51-49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, but has fallen behind in the key bay side seat of Carrum by the same slender margin.

While voters in Carrum, which is one of four volatile seats along the Frankston train line that have decided the fate of the past two state elections, have drifted away from Labor, more voters in the seat of Eltham northeast of Melbourne have shifted towards the Andrews Government.

In Cranbourne, where the Liberal vote has dived off the back of One Nation surging to 10 per cent support, Labor is also set to hold on to the marginal outer suburban electorate.

Labor’s lead in Eltham has been extended to a commanding 54-46 per cent.

The polling was conducted on August 7-8 of 1095 people at a statewide level and more than 515 voters in each of the three marginal seats.

In good news for the government, it looks like optimism has returned to Victoria.

YouGov Galaxy managing director David Briggs said a majority of people now say the state is heading in the right direction — compared to 41 per cent early last year.

“Voters rarely turf out a government when they feel confident in the direction the state is heading,” he said.

On the Coalition side, its East West Link policy appears to be a vote winner, with 33 per cent of people saying it makes them more likely to vote for the Opposition.

That policy for a cross-city tolled road tunnel was central to the 2014 State campaign, when Daniel Andrews promised to dump it if he won power.

Victorian Liberal leader Matthew Guy. Picture: AAP.

As revealed on Sunday, the Coalition is also well in front on the issue of managing crime, but is slightly behind on the cost of living battleground and Matthew Guy is behind Daniel Andrews on the question of better premier.

Mr Briggs said the seat-by-seat polling shows a “swing to Labor in one, a swing to the Liberals in another and the status quo maintained in the third”.

“These are key Labor-held seats the Liberals would be expected to win if they are to form government after the November election,” he said.

Mr Briggs said the Greens vote statewide had not lifted, meaning it would be “difficult but not impossible” for them to snatch more seats in the inner city.

The prospect of a hung parliament would occur if Labor lost ground to the coalition, meaning it could not secure 45 seats and form a majority of its own.

If this was to occur, Labor would have to rely on independents or the Greens — which currently hold three lower house seats — to form a minority government.

At the moment, Labor notionally holds 47 seats, if it counts Melton MP Don Nardella who quit the parliamentary party after rorting taxpayer money.

The three seats polled by the Herald Sun show a markedly different preferred premier result depending on the electorate.

In Carrum, Mr Guy is more popular than Mr Andrews, but in Cranbourne the premier is well ahead of the opposition leader.

Mr Briggs said that in Cranbourne, One Nation could shape the result.

“It is likely that the outcome in the seat will be determined by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, should they choose to field a candidate,” he said.

BAYSIDE VOTERS WORRIED ABOUT CRIME, LEVEL CROSSING REMOVALS

Lynn Porteous, her brother Peter Porteous are joined by Mark Stewart and his son Chandler, 17. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

VOTERS in the Labor-held Carrum electorate are increasingly concerned with crime and frustrated by level crossing removals on the Frankston line.

Seaford father Peter Porteous, 57, said the level crossing works were an issue in the community.

“It’s a bit (of a pain) for the people who want access to Seaford Rd at the moment,” he said.

“I think there were other issues they could have spent the money on — health and crime.”

Mr Porteous said criminal sentencing was not in line with community expectations and there was increasing concern about law and order.

“I’ve got a young daughter who is 16 and she likes to go out and about and she feels threatened to not be able to go out by herself or with her girlfriends,” he said.

Mark Stewart, 53, grew up in Seaford but said the area had changed dramatically and he no longer felt it was safe for his family.

“I wouldn’t want my son walking through Frankston at night by himself,” Mr Stewart said.

“The crime rate in this country, especially down this region, has gone through the roof.”

Both men told the Herald Sun they were not surprised at the recent development of a police investigation into the Labor rorts-for-votes scandal.

“When any new government gets elected there is always some sort of drama behind it,” Mr Porteous.

— by Tamsin Rose

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