When Allan government knew a paltry number of passengers would use the Suburban Rail Loop

Modelling that was provided to Premier Jacinta Allan years’ ago — but kept secret — compared the likely patronage of the $200bn Suburban Rail Loop to existing lines, where passenger numbers are many times higher.

Secret government modelling showing a paltry number of passengers expected to step aboard the $200bn Suburban Rail Loop was handed to Premier Jacinta Allan four years ago.

The internal analysis, obtained by the Sunday Herald Sun, compares the 90km loop’s patronage to existing lines where passenger numbers are up to 11 times higher.

Labor ministers say the data was not shared with Cabinet, which was kept in the dark during key decision-making processes for the SRL, but that it further shows the risk of providing “platinum treatment” to southeastern suburbs at the expense of booming growth corridors.

The leaked analysis shows that by mid-century – when Melbourne houses eight million people – there would be only 24,000 trips a day between the first two SRL stations, Cheltenham and Clayton, in Melbourne’s southeast.

Premier Jacinta Allan inspects early works of the SRL in Clayton in 2022. Picture: Wayne Taylor

It shows that by the same year, trains running between Sunshine and Footscray in Melbourne’s booming west, would be crammed with a whopping 270,000 passengers.

The analysis by Rail Projects Victoria used the public sector’s integrated transport model, based on public sector population forecasts, and is likely to reignite debate about suburban infrastructure priorities across Melbourne.

It predicts rail network passenger numbers based on the full 90km loop being in operation between Cheltenham and Werribee, but does not factor in rezoning around SRL stations currently being finalised that will pave the way for suburban skyscrapers.

One Labor minister said the data was not shared with other MPs at the time and that there was little information provided about modelling during decision-making.

“This is exactly why they didn’t bring the SRL to the general Cabinet … at the decision-making point,” they said.

“They knew western suburbs and northern suburbs MPs would be angry.”

Picture: Sarah Matray

Another said there was a growing political risk about people in Melbourne’s north and west feeling “left out” while other parts of the city with decent transport links got “platinum treatment”.

The government rejected the leaked public sector modelling and said a business case – published a year after the leaked brief was sent to Ms Allan when she was transport infrastructure minister – showed two-way passenger demand between Cheltenham and Clayton would be 51,000 people by 2056.

The business case says the years after the $34.5bn SRL East opens in 2035, there would be 7900 people boarding trains at Cheltenham each day, and 15,000 at Clayton.

A Victorian Parliamentary Budget Office report released last year estimates building and maintaining just the first two sections of the SRL, a 60km route between Cheltenham and Melbourne Airport, would cost about $134bn over the next five decades.

Experts say the total cost of the full 90km loop to Werribee would likely top $200bn, but the Government has refused to put a figure on the plan.

While the government spruiks the SRL as an alternative route to the airport, the modelling shows fewer than 500 people a day would take the 60km journey between Clayton and Tullamarine.

There was no data included for expected airport patronage from Cheltenham.

Passenger numbers rise to about 4500 people expected to use the SRL to the airport from Bundoora or Reservoir in Melbourne’s northern suburbs.

The SRL route. Picture: Supplied

Some passenger forecasts for existing southeastern and eastern suburbs rail lines have been left off the analysis, but are represented by bar graphs showing they dwarf all sections of the SRL.

It is understood once the brief was submitted to Ms Allan’s office it went no further.

The following year a “business and investment case” was released that says there would be 430,000 daily trips on the first two sections of the SRL – between Cheltenham and Tullamarine – by 2056, making it “the busiest stand alone line in Melbourne”.

“SRL will radically change how people travel across Melbourne, reducing traffic congestion and crowding on the existing network,” it says.

“The new orbital line will carry more than 430,000 passengers between Cheltenham and Melbourne Airport daily by 2056, taking more than 2.2 million vehicle kilometres off the road network each day.”

Emeritus Professor Environment and Planning at RMIT University, Michael Buxton, said the Government had never properly assessed whether funding earmarked for the SRL would be better spent on upgrading existing transport corridors, particularly in the west and north of Melbourne where services are “shocking”.

“They’ve never really modelled where people are living, compared to where they want people to live,” he said.

Picture: Ian Currie

“They’ve actually stopped properly funding where the people are going, and where the need is, in order to construct a ‘hope for the future’.”

A government spokesperson said SRL stations “will be among the busiest on the network, with 70,000 passengers expected to use SRL East every day within a year of opening – nearly half of them shifting from their cars.”

They said the government was also delivering rail improvements “right across Melbourne’s west” including via the $14bn Metro Tunnel that boosts capacity along the Sunbury corridor, and the $650 million Melton Line Upgrade.

It comes residents in Melbourne’s west voice their concerns about train services in their area. From Werribee to Geelong and Wyndham Vale, residents complained about an array of issues like significant delays to carriages overcrowding.

Family of three Jai, Seona and Keira said they were trying to get into the city at Wyndham Vale station when they were slapped with a 40 minute delay upon arrival.

Jai Vesovic with his partner Seona Blake and her daughter Keira at Wyndham Vale station. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

“To get to the closest metro train you have to go into Werribee. It’s all V Line here,” Seona said.

“It takes me 20 minutes to get to Werribee on a good day. On a bad day it can take up to 40 minutes, and it’s just around the corner.”

When asked about the Suburban Rail Loop the family said: “The west should have been prioritised, especially Geelong.”

“Geelong is a main hub for this area. It would have made sense to make it a priority.”

The family also mentioned new residents moving into the area had resulted in a significant increase in locals catching the train to get into the city for work.

The Kumar family expressed similar concerns.

“The amount of trains really need to increase,” said father, Ajay.

“Especially during peak hour when it is 9-5, there are lots of people going into the city for work. The carriages are too full and not everyone can fit.”

Minister for Energy and Resources Lily D’Ambrosio on Sunday insisted the 400 page peer-reviewed business plan for the SRL demonstrated that “the demand is there”.

“SRL stations will be the busiest in the network with 70,000 passengers expected to use SRL east everyday within the first year of its opening,” she said

“Suburban railway will transform our city, it will transform passenger travel and it will be much needed.”

When asked why the public would opt for this train line despite the unpopularity of smart buses that follow the same route, D’Ambrosio cited the same 400 page business plan, reiterating that SRL east would be the busiest part of the Metropolitan network.

“It will carry 70,000 passengers a day...those figures speak for themselves,” she said.

Ms D’Ambrosio said she could not comment on a document revealed by the Sunday Herald Sun that was “not released”.

“What I can point you to is the detailed 400 page business case that the Victorian Government released in 2021...which had all the details on the modelling and economics,” she said.

Ms D’Ambrosio claimed she had not seen the report by Rail Projects Victoria.

She said they were still tending to the rest of the network.

“We’re delivering a metro tunnel that will free up so much more capacity to deliver more services to so many other parts of the Metropolitan rail network.”

Ms D’Ambrosio added that additional services had already been added to the north and west networks.

“I can tell you I have a lot of people in my community that are very excited to have seen more services...being run on the Mernda line than ever before.”

“Metro tunnel will allow for more of that to happen,”

“This is about doing the best in terms of passenger services, rail services, no matter where people live.”