Wetter than usual summer in store for Melbourne

Melburnians can expect to be drenched by heavy rainfall over summer and parts of Victoria are at risk of being flooded, a new report has warned.

Victoria could face a summer of flooding and heavy rainfall as the chance of a La Nina event rises, a report released today has found.

But we are less likely to see extreme bushfires — such as the ‘Black Summer’ blazes from almost two years ago — for this year’s Severe Weather Period, which spans from October 2021 to April 2022.

The Sky News Severe Weather Outlook for 2021/2021 found climate patterns in the Indian and Pacific oceans “could strengthen into a full-fledged La Nina”, a climate event that results in increased rainfall for most of Australia.

Report author and Sky News Chief Meteorologist Tom Saunders said “it is the driving force behind this wet weather forecast”.

Heavy rainfall is expected in Victoria from October 2021 to April 2022. Picture: David Crosling

“There’s roughly a 50 per cent chance we’ll go into a fully fledged La Nina,” he said.

“However even if we don't necessarily have a fully fledged event … we are still on the La Nina side of neutral.

“We’re still likely to be wetter than normal.”

Mr Saunders has forecasted nine to 13 days of severe thunderstorms in Melbourne in total and a 60 to 70 per cent chance of above median rainfall in Victoria.

“So far in 2021 for most of Victoria rainfall has been close to average and in Gippsland in particular it’s been above average,” he said.

Flooding is likely. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

“There is a good risk that Victoria will have above average rain.

“That also increases the chance of flooding, especially through the eastern parts of the state where the catchments are saturated from heavy rainfall.

“For example through Gippsland, northeast Victoria and our Alpine areas there is a high risk of a flood event over the next seven months and it’d be no surprise to see even major flooding during that period.”

But Mr Saunders said the wet weather doesn’t necessarily mean a break from the heat, even though it’s “unlikely to be exceptionally dry” and the bushfire risk is lower than the risk of floods.

Bushfires like those seen in Gippsland during the Black Summer are less likely. Picture: Getty Images

He’s forecast one heatwave, defined as an “intense and prolonged” event over five days, for Melbourne this summer with global warming still driving increased temperatures during La Nina years.

“It could be a hot summer as we’re still forecasting most of Australia temperatures to be warmer than normal,” he said.

But he said the good rainfall, with the exception of in northwest Victoria, should put farming regions in good stead.

“2021 has continued the recovery from the severe nationwide drought of 2017-2019, with many key agricultural regions having benefited from prosperous growing seasons for the last 18 months.”

Sky News Chief

Tom Saunders is Chief Meteorologist at Sky News Weather.

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