Warning to Andrews government over the effect of the pandemic in traditionally safe Labor seats

There are fears the Andrews government is in danger of losing a swath of heartland seats at the state election with angst over the effect of the pandemic.

Former Labor strategist and pollster Kos Samaras has put the ALP on notice, warning it could lose a swath of heartland seats at the November state election.

Mr Samaras, who says there is angst over the effect of the pandemic in traditionally safe Labor seats, has warned government MPs to start campaigning now or risk defeat at the ballot box.

He said in light of the federal election the notion of safe seats had been effectively quashed, and that major parties would have to fight harder for voter share.

“Something changed on the weekend and it was not just a government. The results, right across much of this country, sent a strong message to the major parties,” he said.

Pollster Kos Samaras says MPs in traditionally safe Labor seats could be booted out. Picture: Daniel Pockett

“Traditional Liberal and Labor safe seats, once containing huge fields of partisan voters have now dwindled.

“My message to people on my side of politics … if you are in a safe seat, start campaigning now. You no longer hold a safe seat.”

Labor insiders say the party stands to lose up to 10 seats if the statewide swing at the federal election, which was seven times the national average, was replicated in November.

Polling conducted over the past 12 months by Mr Samaras’ research firm RedBridge has shown an increased softening in vote share for both major parties.

The federal election result effectively quashed the notion of safe seats. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

Mr Samaras said the results in seats won by teal independents and in Fowler, where frontbencher Kristina Kenneally was defeated with a swing of 18 per cent, suggested natural support for both major parties could be as low as 25 per cent.

“All it takes is for the system to be stressed, and a once large vote, in any seat, gets washed away,” he said.

“Without any stress, Labor’s primary vote in many of its safe seats got cut down to mid 40 primary.

“All it will take is a well resourced alternative, that is not Liberal, just like the teals, and these seats will wash away.”

New political outfit the Victorians Party plans to field candidates across every state electorate.

Co-founder Bill Lang said he was confident the party would appeal to voters looking for an alternative from the major parties.

“What we have seen from the federal election is clear evidence that the movement of voters away from the two major parties continues to gain momentum,” he said.

“Labor was not immune from such an effect, with their star candidate Kristine Kenneally rejected by the people of Fowler, with voters choosing a community focused candidate in Dai Le.

“Our community consultation over the past few months has uncovered that Victorians are after a real choice away from the major parties, they want a return to representative government and the opportunity to vote for someone who lives and works in their electorate, someone who will always put them, their families, and community first and that choice is what the Victorians Party will give to every Victorian.”