Victorian voters vent anger at Allan government in shock poll result
Victorian voters are abandoning Jacinta Allan’s government, with new polling putting the Coalition and Labor neck and neck for the first time in almost seven years.
Victoria
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Voters are abandoning the Allan government amid concerns over health spending cuts, with a new poll revealing the Coalition and Labor are neck and neck for the first time in almost seven years.
The survey from bipartisan pollster RedBridge reveals just 31 per cent of Victorians would vote for the ALP if an election was held now, while support for John Pesutto’s opposition has surged to 40 per cent.
Once preferences of minor party voters are distributed, Labor and the Coalition would be tied 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis, according to the poll of 1514 Victorians.
It is the first time the parties have been neck and neck since December 2017, a year before the Coalition went on to lose the 2018 election.
At that time the Coalition recorded a primary vote of 41, one above their current support, while Labor was at 36 per cent, five points more than now.
Labor’s support is also six points lower than the 37 it recorded at the 2022 election.
The poll is expected to send shockwaves throughout the Victorian ALP, putting Premier Jacinta Allan under significant pressure.
RedBridge director and former Labor Party strategist Kos Samaras said concerns about health system cuts appeared to be behind the massive drop in support for the government.
“Labor’s fine balancing act of managing debt, whilst ensuring that debt did not compound the cost of living crisis, failed when stories of cuts to health services started to emerge,” Mr Samaras said.
“This was in reality the most profound moment in this government’s almost 10 year history.
“It was cuts to health that countless Victorians have highlighted with us as a major reason for shifting support to minor parties and the Coalition.
“In just over two years, Labor will be asking Victorians for 16 years (of government) and they will only be granted that privilege if they can illustrate a capacity to deliver on the basic services that many Victorian cannot afford to lose right now — health being one of them.”
Conducted between July 23 and August 1, the survey shows Labor well behind with migrant and regional voters as well as among low income earners and homeowners.
RedBridge said mums and dads were also shifting their vote, as well as those who did not have a university education and voters in Melbourne’s west – Labor’s traditional heartland.
Throughout June and July, the government has faced countless crises relating to its push to force hospitals to slash budgets, with health services warning they could have to close emergency departments and specialist wards, reduce surgeries and cull hundreds of front line jobs.
The demands have come despite Ms Allan doubling down on the $34.5bn Cheltenham-Box Hill stage of the Suburban Rail Loop amid funding and cost blowout concerns on both that section and the remainder of the project.
The poll is also the first to be done since the eruption of the CFMEU scandal, which saw Labor cut ties with the militant union as evidence emerged of kickbacks and rorts of Victoria’s major projects and infiltration by criminal gangs.
And the government has been under pressure as violent youth crime soars.
The Coalition would need to pick up an extra 17 seats to form government at the 2026 election.
But there are currently 20 seats, held by margins of less than eight per cent by Labor, including 12 seats with margins lower than 5 per cent.
The poll could sure-up support for Mr Pesutto, who has faced almost 18 months of leadership speculation which has escalated in recent weeks with some Liberal Party MPs openly canvassing support for a change.
Some Liberals have been pushing for the under-siege leader to be replaced before a potentially damaging Federal Court defamation trial being brought on by exiled MP Moira Deeming begins.
Others want to wait to assess the fallout of the court case in September to determine whether he can continue to head up the party.
There is also a view among Mr Pesutto’s most fierce detractors that a strong poll result for the Coalition should provide even more impetus to replace him, as they say they would be even better placed to win in 2026 with an alternative leader.
Support for the Coalition is at its highest since June 2021, when a poll had the Michael O’Brien-led party on 41 per cent of the primary vote.
But at that time the Coalition were still trailing Labor on a two-party preferred basis, 48 to 52.
RedBridge co-director and former Liberal Party strategist Tony Barry said the polling showed Mr Pesutto was successfully appealing to his party’s base.
“To change the government you firstly need a mood for change sentiment and then the opposition has to reach minimum expectations in the assessment of the electorate,” he said.
“The danger for Labor is that Jacinta Allan isn’t defining herself as that change whilst John Pesutto is meeting those soft voter expectations.
“Importantly for the Liberals, these numbers also show Pesutto has rebuilt the party’s base in the eastern suburbs which is critical for them to spread their electoral map. In campaigns you test desire to win by discipline so the challenge for the Victorian Liberals is to stay unified and focused.”
The poll put the Greens vote at 12 per cent.
WHAT YOU SAID
Olivia Densley, Point Cook
“I’m a swing voter, I vote based on what I think our state needs. If there’s anything that will personally affect my family,then I will vote that way. I think the biggest issue right now is cost of living, everyone’s really struggling with it.”
Rosalyn Velasquez, Point Cook
“People are feeling unsafe in Victoria right now, security is definitely one of the main issues for citizens. I personally don’t know too much about each party, I just try to find out what the candidates are proposing whenever we have elections.”
Sandrine Boyle, Truganina
“I think Labor might be losing voters out here because there’s not much development happening. There’s been an influx of people and not many new infrastructure or roads or anything. Cost of living as well, there’s lots of young families and I think they’ve got playgroup and that’s it. As a stay-at-home mum, having more community stuff to get people out and about would help a lot.”
Marrekishsin Kaiyat, Point Cook
“I’m not with one party in particular. I go for the one that can reform society for the common person, not just a certain class. I think the main (issue) is that cost of living has gone up. The killing point is real estate, it needs to be put under control. Some of the policies I feel are not for the common person. Cost of living has gone through the roof, I used to pay $70 for a weekly shop, now I spend $350 — it’s hurting everyone’s pocket. Also the young kids who are doing criminal things and they keep letting them go, it’s really shocking and definitely a key concern.”
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