Victoria most at risk of blackouts if summer scorchers hit early

Victoria is most at risk of scorcher blackouts this summer, with households set to pay more to keep the lights on — and an early heatwave in this particular month could spell disaster.

Households look set to pay more to keep the lights on this summer, amid warnings of power shortages and potential blackouts.

An early heatwave in December could spell disaster, with two crucial electricity generators in Victoria unlikely to be running at capacity until the end of the year.

The Australian Energy Market Operator, which balances supply across the grid to keep power going, has released its annual electricity supply forecast to spur the market into action and force governments to prepare summer contingencies.

Victoria faces particular risks this year because a 500MW unit at coal-fired power station Loy Yang A and a 259MW unit at a gas-fired peaking plant at Mortlake are months away from being repaired.

It singles out Victoria as facing particular risks this year because a 500MW unit at coal-fired power station Loy Yang A and a 259MW unit at a gas-fired peaking plant at Mortlake are still months away from being repaired.

“If both power station outages were extended over the summer, and if no additional supply was secured, involuntary load shedding may be experienced in Victoria during extreme weather events, potentially over multiple events, equivalent to between 260,000 and 1.3 million households being without power for four hours,” the report said.

AEMO chief executive Audrey Zibelman said work with industry and governments had begun to secure “additional resources to meet peak summer demands”.

“While expected and allowed for under current rules, we are finding this type of reactive action is imposing higher costs on consumers and risks to reliability which are not sustainable over the longer term,” she said.

Australian Energy Market Operator chief executive Audrey Zibelman. Picture: David Geraghty

The AEMO can ask electricity suppliers to spark up more units during heatwaves, or pay to have major energy users power down.

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In the past two years this ­action has cost Victorian households and businesses about $83 million, and saw rolling blackouts — “load shedding” — during a January heatwave.

The report said compared to the previous year, there were now “greater risks of load shedding” and that ageing generators were a concern.

It also pointed to looming problems likely when coal-fired power stations closed, with more investment needed in stabilising renewable energy supply and sending it where it was needed.

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