Sydney’s lockdown not hard enough to protect Victoria as state implements hard border with NSW

Stronger measures are needed to protect the rest of Australia from Sydney’s spiralling coronavirus situation, according to top epidemiologists.

Victoria has placed a hard border against NSW as the Sydney outbreak continues its spread across Australia and epidemiologists warn stronger measures are needed to protect the nation.

Premier Daniel Andrews on Tuesday banned any Victorians still in NSW – except essential workers or those given compassionate exemptions – from returning home in the next fortnight while suspending all red zone permits from Covid hot spots.

South Australia on Tuesday became the latest state plunged into lockdown due to Covid’s Delta variant, which leaked from Sydney before its lockdown was strengthened on July 9.

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely said restrictions on construction and other work sites implemented this week effectively put Sydney under a Stage 4 lockdown, though the current outbreak will present an ongoing risk for weeks.

“It could be at least several weeks before they get those numbers to something like five cases per day,” Prof Blakely said.

Melbourne CBD is largely deserted during Victoria’s fifth lockdown. Picture : NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

“The real shame for Sydney is it will take considerable time ... It’s going to take weeks to beat this thing.

“The question is what can we do to speed it up by a week or so?”

While states have halved their hotel quarantine intake, Prof Blakely said the threat of infected cases travelling over borders now presented the same level of risk for each jurisdiction.

As he extended Victoria’s lockdown, Mr Andrews ramped up his rhetoric on the Berejiklian government’s restrictions, saying a hard border was required to prevent more Delta cases leaking from Sydney.

“I’ll just remind you all, we had a ring of steel around Melbourne last year and it didn’t just protect country Victoria, it protected the whole country,” Mr Andrews said.

“They are not locked into Sydney, so they must be locked out of Victoria.

“That is the choice I have had to make.

“We don’t want to get this outbreak under control only to see another outbreak flare up, another incursion.”

South Australia entered a tough seven-day lockdown from 6pm on Tuesday after the fifth case was linked to its growing cluster. Under SA’s statewide restrictions schools and the construction industry are closed, while residents are limited to 90 minutes exercise a day and within 2.5km of their house.

Queensland is also on alert after a woman in her 20s tested positive after returning from a Melbourne exposure site on July 10, despite being fully vaccinated.

Western Australia and Tasmania have also placed a hard border on NSW, Queensland and Victoria, while restricting travel from South Australia.

Although Sydney’s Delta outbreak began on June 16, the first “soft-lockdown” measures were only introduced on June 26, before being partially strengthened on July 9 and again stepped up on the weekend.

The NSW government’s decision not to enter a “hard and fast” lockdown at the early stages of the outbreak is now expected to see the state endure weeks or months of harsh measures – also increasing the likelihood of repeat leaks into other states.

Modelling by the Burnet Institute last week revealed the restrictions first placed over Sydney would not be enough to drive the outbreak down, resulting in 100+ daily cases and thousands of deaths over the coming months.

Although the Berejiklian government has now brought its settings closer into line with the Victorian stage 4 restrictions which experts say are needed to overcome the Delta outbreak, it may still take more than a month to control its spread.

Bondi locals in Sydney are not letting lockdown stop them from getting out and about. Picture: Richard Dobson

According to the Burnet’s latest COVASIM modelling, even if the density restrictions introduced in NSW on July 9 were maintained for the next 12 months they would not have eliminated the outbreak, leading to 12 times the number of deaths than during the horror 2017 season – which claimed 654 lives in NSW.

“When we looked at the NSW numbers, but in a simulation for Victoria, we found that if you didn’t have the stage-4 level of restrictions we would not be able to control the outbreak – and that you would be in some level of restriction for many months as opposed to weeks,” Burnet Institute deputy director Professor Margaret Hellard said.

“If the outbreak isn’t immediately contained, you are better off going harder faster than delaying too long.

“The faster you go – even the severe restrictions - it means you are in lockdown for less period of time and your ability to release is faster.

“If you miss out on getting under control you have a big, long, problem ahead of you.

“Currently, with the level of vaccination we have in the community, when we can’t see the edge of the outbreak, you are better off going harder faster, because in the long run getting out of restrictions faster.”