Summer set to start with a vengeance before cool change

Summer’s going to hit with a vengeance, with Melbourne set to reach 31C tomorrow before the mercury drops again.

Summer’s going to hit with a vengeance, with Melbourne set to reach 31C tomorrow before the mercury drops again.

The entire state is expected to face elevated fire danger on the first day of the season as temperatures rise up into the mid-30s in the state’s northwest.

It follows a forecast top of 22C in Melbourne and Geelong today, while Horsham is set to hit 25C, Mildura 30C, Bendigo 28C, and Shepparton, Echuca and Wangaratta 29C.

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“We basically pick up some northerly winds during tomorrow, so that is going to cause temperatures to rise significantly,” Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Chris Godfred said of Saturday.

Melbourne is expected to hit 31C tomorrow. Picture: AAP/Ellen Smith

But a cool change and showers set to sweep through the state on Saturday night will bring the temperature down to a forecast 19C in Melbourne on Sunday, and the low-to-mid 20s in the Mallee region.

Victoria and the rest of Australia are set to swelter through hotter-than-average temperatures this summer.

Meanwhile, the rainfall outlook is neutral, with the bureau’s manager of long-range forecasting, Dr Andrew Watkins, this week saying there’s “not a strong push towards exceptionally wet or exceptionally dry conditions”.

“As we go into summer, we’re looking like El Nino might come into play. Now in the southeast that has a bit less of an effect but we’re also seeing some higher pressures down in the southern Tasman Sea,” Dr Watkins said.

“They might direct a little more onshore winds, onshore flow into eastern Victoria which will help it stop going too dry.”

It comes after one of the top-10 driest springs in Victoria since records began.

Australia as a whole experienced its fifth-warmest winter this year.

Looking at the week to come in Melbourne, the temperature is set to peak at 20C on Monday and Tuesday before jumping to a forecast top of 26C on Wednesday and then 32C on Thursday.