Rain, hail or shine: How Bureau of Meteorology staff predict the weather

FROM TRACKING volcanic ash to forecasting extreme weather, a team of meteorologists are trying to prepare us for whatever Mother Nature throws at us.

THERE are more than 50 staff gathered for the morning briefing on the main floor of Melbourne’s Bureau of Meteorology.

A live satellite feed flashes across a wall of digital panels as experts make their assessments of the nation’s weather for the day.

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While Victoria has benefited from a slow-moving high-pressure system, rain was continuing to fall over North Queensland with severe flood warnings in place.

There is a system worth keeping an eye on over the Gulf of Carpentaria and a low-intensity heatwave in part of South Australia.

Ocean modelling shows a temperature anomaly off the coast of Tassie where the wild seas appear to have been warming for a prolonged period.

There’s talk of sea level heights along the Queensland coast before discussion shifts to a quirkier snippet of news: the world’s oldest message in a bottle has been found more than a century after it was dropped in the ocean to monitor currents.

“It took 132 years for the data to be collected,’’ an expert jokes with the team. “Thankfully, now it takes less than 24 hours.’’

It is perhaps the most noticeable aspect to anybody fortunate to wander the hallways of Australia’s bureaus.

Advances in technology offer a greater immediacy in forecasting than ever before.

Friday’s World Meteorological Day offers the chance to highlight the vital work of thousands of weather boffins around the world.

Acting Manager of Extreme Weather Desk James Taylor will celebrate World Meteorological Day on March 23. Picture: David Caird

In Australia and Antarctica, the Bureau employs 1560 people, who all work around the clock,tracking weather systems from one side of the planet to the other.

Yet, there remains an element of unpredictability, an aspect that keeps employees on their toes. It was an issue showcased after the “once-in-a-century’’ super storm predicted to sweep across Australia’s southeast coast last December.

There were fears of an unprecedented torrential downpour and the type of flooding capable of washing cars off roads and residents from their homes.

At least that’s what they told us.

In the end, it was a rare lesson for the Bureau of its use of language and one acting manager of extreme weather, James Taylor, says staff have learnt from it.

“I’d be surprised if that event isn’t talked about for years to come,’’ he says.

Along with a team of extreme weather gurus, Taylor is charged with ensuring the nation is ready for whatever Mother Nature throws at it and concedes that mistakes in relaying that information do happen from time to time.

Though they are getting better at it.

Last week, Taylor was preparing to send additional staff to North Queensland to help monitor the emerging flood crisis.

Volcanologist Dr Adele Crozier with volcanic dust that is a hazard to airline traffic and pumice stone. Picture: David Caird

“We all love the work we do but ask anybody in the room and they will tell you the core of our role is to save lives,’’ Taylor says.

“We want to provide as much information as possible to help communities and keep people safe.’’

It’s a responsibility shared not just by the team charged with watching the weather.

From their posts in Collins St, staff also track what’s going on in space — patterns beyond our atmosphere that can impact our life on Earth.

Severe space weather has the potential to affect our lives in many ways because of our ever-increasing reliance on technology.

They’ll tell you its effects can be felt in areas such as aviation, defence, energy, navigation, timing and communication.

Then there’s Dr Adele Crozier and a dedicated team who keep a close eye on the world’s most active volcanoes.

Crozier monitors scores of the world’s active areas using everything from seismic charts to real-time CCTV, careful to relay any changes to give governments an edge and ensure residents get the safety information they need.

While staff at observation centres at each site are responsible for what happens on the ground — Crozier and her team take care of monitoring the air above. Ash clouds and their impact on the aviation industry is a key focus.

Last week, the team were closely monitoring the ongoing eruption of Mt Dukono, northeast Indonesia.

Victorian volcanologist Adele Crozier pictured at Sinabung, an active volcano in Indonesia. Pictures: Supplied.

Victorian volcanologist Adele Crozier pictured at Vulcano, a volcanic island off the coast of Italy. Pictures: Supplied.

“Every single day we will have an advisory out for that one depending on the wind conditions,’’ Crozier said. “We work out where the ash is and where it will be in six, 12 and 18 hours.’’

The volcanologist says the ability to forecast and track ash clouds had increased significantly, offering a level of certainty to airlines forced to contend with the dangerous phenomenon capable of bringing down planes.

In one of the most famous cases in 1982, a British Airways flight almost fell from the sky over Java when its four engines lost power.

“Volcanic ash is really fine pulverised rock and glass and when it goes up into the atmosphere and into the engine of a plane it coats all the components causing it to shut down,’’ Crozier says.

“Our main goal is to make sure that no plane encounters volcanic ash.

“It’s not always visible to the naked eye — pilots can’t see it but we are here monitoring plumes around the globe 24-7 to ensure the safety of plane passengers everywhere.’’