Population growth set to become state election issue as Victoria posts record migrant intake

THE state’s booming population has experienced a record migrant intake over the past year, with Melbourne well on track to surpass nine million residents by 2056.

VICTORIA experienced a record migrant intake over the past year, as the state added a massive 144,000 people.

With Melbourne’s population tipped to surpass nine million by 2056 under a high growth scenario, the state’s population is booming annually by 2.3 per cent, well above the 1.6 per cent national rate.

Victoria’s growth is also easily outstripping the rest of the world — India grew by 1.1 per cent, China (0.4 per cent), Canada (0.9 per cent), New Zealand (one per cent), the Philippines (1.5 per cent) and the US (0.7 per cent) in 2016-17, said new ABS report Australian Demographic Statistics.

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Melbourne’s population is booming. Picture: Tony Gough

The state’s population hit 6.32 million as of June 30, driven mainly by record net overseas migration of 86,900, up 23 per cent compared to the previous year.

Although Victoria had a lower migrant intake than NSW, the southern state enjoyed a net gain of 17,200 residents from other states, while NSW suffered a net loss of nearly 15,000 people.

Overall, Victoria added 144,400 people last year, ahead of NSW with 121,800, Queensland (79,600), WA (21,400), SA (10,500) and Tasmania (3300), the report said.

Given continuing high migration and fertility rates, the ABS forecast that Melbourne’s population would jump from 4.7 million now to 9.2 million by 2056.

It would overtake Sydney by 2036, by which time Victoria would have 8.6 million people.

Melbourne’s rampant growth is shaping as a key state election issue next year, with Opposition Leader Matthew Guy expected to campaign heavily on curtailing the city’s expansion.

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Demographer Dr Bob Birrell is critical of a “mega-regions” plan.

Smaller parties such as Australian Conservatives and Sustainable Australia are also due to campaign strongly on slashing migrant numbers.

Meanwhile, a top demographer has ridiculed a call by former premier Steve Bracks for the creation of three national mega-regions to absorb population growth and create hi-tech jobs.

The Australian Population Research Institute’s Dr Bob Birrell said that “pro-growth” Mr Bracks wanted governments to spend a fortune investing in new population centres and transport like fast trains.

“These centres, Bracks asserts, will justify the expenditure by selling knowledge intensive products into the booming Asian market,” he said.

Dr Birrell said that Mr Bracks did not explain why the existing Sydney and Melbourne population centres were unable to do this, given Australia’s trade deficit in advanced manufactured goods had risen from $118 billion in 2010 to $160 billion last year.

“It would be foolish to follow Bracks’ advice given these circumstances,” he said.

Australia’s population grew by 388,100 to reach 24.6 million as of June 30.

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@JMasanauskas