Poll reveals Labor’s support is falling in traditional heartland

Labor’s traditional heartland is shunning the Andrews government — but one group will play a key role in deciding the 2022 election.

Voters in Melbourne’s west, Labor’s traditional heartland, are turning on the Andrews government amid growing angst over the effect of the pandemic and four lockdowns.

A statewide poll of 1484 Victorians – a larger sample than usual – has revealed that despite 44 per cent in Melbourne’s west identifying as ALP supporters, only 36 per cent would vote for the party if an election was held now.

Overall, Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 37 per cent, down from 42.86 at the 2018 election, while support for the Coalition has jumped from 35.2 per cent to 41 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor still leads the Coalition 52.4 per cent to 47.6 per cent, but it is well short of its 57.3 per cent vote in 2018.

And the undecideds are again expected to play a key role in the 2022 election, with almost 13 per cent of those polled not sure about which way to vote.

Daniel Andrews remained the preferred premier, but his party’s support has dwindled. Picture: Daniel Pockett

Acting Premier James Merlino on Monday said he was not concerned by the polling results.

“My only concern is doing the right thing in terms of responding to the pandemic, taking on the advice of our public health team, keeping communities safe,” he said.

“Politics will not defeat this virus, looking at polls and responding to polls will not defeat this virus. So that is the furthest thing from my mind.

“The advice we received from public health, the decisions we made to keep Victorians safe, to drive this outbreak into the ground, and to return to life as we knew it, enjoying all that Victoria has to offer in a Covid-safe way that we had just a few weeks ago, that’s where I want to return.”

Polling experts warn another major lockdown could significantly harm the government’s re-election prospects.

And senior Labor sources say there is growing angst inside the government due to the disproportionate pain of lockdowns in Melbourne’s west.

With a higher proportion of casual workers, people who cannot work from home and struggling small businesses in the city’s west, they fear they have been hit hardest by long-running restrictions.

And with no JobKeeper during the latest lockdown, many were left with no income.

“There’s been a definite softening of enthusiastic, positive feedback,” one MP said.

“There are definitely some people who think there should be some consequences for us, rightfully or wrongfully.”

The West Gate Tunnel project, facing a $4bn blowout and the ongoing contaminated soil crisis, is also believed to have caused voter unrest in the west.

The new poll was commissioned by the Herald Sun and conducted by bipartisan research and polling firm RedBridge between June 12 and 15, as restrictions continued to be slowly eased across the state.

It showed Daniel Andrews, who is expected to return next Monday from 16 weeks’ leave due to a fall, remained the preferred premier, with 45 per cent of the vote compared with just 25 per cent for Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien.

Almost one third of voters would prefer neither as Premier. Less than half rated the performance of Mr Andrews as favourable, with 46.5 per cent rating it unfavourable. He was more popular among women and younger voters.

And he remained firm favourite over Acting Premier James Merlino for the top job, with 67.5 per cent backing him in a straight contest.

Western suburbs residents Simone Mansur, Vicki Riley, Jonte Cassar and Bruce Hudson have all felt the impact of lockdowns. Picture: Rob Leeson

However, Mr Merlino is more likeable than Mr Andrews, with 54 per cent saying they had a favourable impression of the former, compared to 49.7 for the latter.

RedBridge director Kos Samaras said the findings reflected that Victoria’s most vulnerable workers had been hit the hardest after four lockdowns.

“Our findings display a strong swing away from the government in Melbourne’s west and along the outer suburbs,” he said.

“The loss of support does in part transfer to the Liberal Party and to independents and to the undecided column. At this stage, the softening of support for the government may be temporary but any future lockdowns may indeed bake in this trend.”

RedBridge’s Tony Barry said the poll showed the Liberals still had a shot at the 2022 election. “These numbers show the Liberals are in the conversation but there is a real softness in the vote share for both major parties,” Mr Barry said.