New modelling to overhaul flood forecasting times, improve emergency response

Predicting flood damage during an ongoing disaster has been sped up a thousand times with the help of a new model developed by Melbourne University.

Predicting flood damage during an ongoing disaster has been sped up a thousand times thanks to a new model developed by Melbourne University.

The breakthrough has huge potential benefits for emergency responses, reducing flood forecasting time from hours and days to just seconds, and enabling flood behaviour to be accurately predicted at super-fast speeds.

The model was developed by PHD student Niels Fraehr, along with Professor Q J Wang, Dr Wenyan Wu and Professor Rory Nathan from the Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology.

Predicting flood damage during an ongoing disaster has been sped up a thousand times thanks to a new model developed by Melbourne University.. Picture: Arsineh Houspian

Dubbed the Low-Fidelity, Spatial Analysis and Gaussian Process Learning (LSG) model, it has been published in journal Nature Water.

Prof Nathan said the development had enormous potential as an emergency response tool.

“Currently, our most advanced flood models can accurately simulate flood behaviour, but they’re very slow and can’t be used during a flood event as it unfolds,” he said.

“This new model provides results a thousand times more quickly than previous models, enabling highly accurate modelling to be used in real-time during an emergency.”

Prof Nathan said that being able to access up-to-date modelling during a disaster could help emergency services and communities receive much more accurate information about flooding risks and respond accordingly.

The new modelling will offer huge benefits to better assist emergency services when responding to flooding across Victoria. Picture: Arsineh Houspian.

“It’s a gamechanger,” he said.

Tested in two vastly different but equally complex river systems, the LSG model predicted floods with 99 per cent accuracy on the Chowilla floodplain in southern Australia in 33 seconds instead of 11 hours, and at Queensland’s Burnett River in 27 seconds instead of 36 hours when compared to current advanced models.

Prof Nathan said the model also had potential benefits in helping to design more resilient infrastructure.

“Being able to simulate thousands of different flooding scenarios, instead of just a handful, will help design infrastructure that holds up to more unpredictable or extreme weather events,” he said.