Migrant influx to hike Melbourne’s population to nine million by 2046, forecasters say

Melbourne is predicted to grow by almost three million in the next quarter century, with new forecasts suggesting Victoria is hot on the heels of its northern neighbour.

Melbourne is on its way to becoming a majority migrant city as the state’s population is projected to grow by nearly three million over the next quarter century.

Nearly 40 per cent of Melbourne residents were born overseas, while suburbs like Melbourne CBD, Dandenong, Clayton and Box Hill are now about 70 per cent migrant, according to 2021 census data.

More than 60 per cent of people in Greater Melbourne have at least one parent born overseas, including half with both parents as migrants.

Melbourne has one of the highest foreign-born populations in the developed world, and this is tipped to increase in coming years as overseas migration is ramped up.

New forecasts by demography outfit .id show that Victoria’s population will soar by 2.71m to reach 9.26m by 2046.

“This growth is primarily driven by overseas migration, which after two years of closed borders is expected to return to pre-Covid levels of 235,000 persons per annum,” said the firm’s latest National and State Population Forecasts report.

Victoria’s is predicted to soar by 2.71m to reach 9.26m by 2046, forecasts from demography outfit .id show. Picture: David Crosling

Australian Population Research Institute director Dr Bob Birrell said the forecast was striking as it meant that Victoria’s growth would outstrip NSW’s, and comprise a third of all the extra people that Australia will have up to 2046.

“That’s based on Big Australia migration numbers continuing, and NSW continuing to lose more of its residents to interstate locations,” he said.

Dr Birrell said that Melbourne offered an early warning of the long-term ageing costs of an economy dependent on high migrant intakes.

“In Melbourne, just over half of all 65-74 year olds, and well over half of those aged 75-84 are overseas-born,” he said.

“This is a result of a high influx of British and southern European migrants in the 1960s and 1970s.”

In 2021, Melbourne’s biggest overseas-born communities came from India (4.9 per cent of all residents), China (3.4 per cent), England (2.7 per cent), Vietnam (1.8 per cent) and NZ (1.7 per cent).

The .id report said the national population was expected to grow by 8.67m to reach 34.37m by 2046.

“These forecasts are revised upwards by 720,000 persons by 2031 when compared to our previous national forecast,” it said.

“Impact of COVID-19 on net overseas migration has been deeper than first thought, but the recovery has been faster and stronger than expected.”

Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry acting chief executive Scott Veenker said governments must undertake detailed planning, decisions and work to ensure that as the population continues to increase, there is no extra pressure placed on infrastructure, housing and services.

“This requires simultaneous planning, investment and collaboration to ensure that the state can accommodate the needs of new and current residents,” he said.