Michael O’Brien a ‘dead man walking’ with just weeks left as Liberal Party leader, insiders say

Victorian Liberals leader Michael O’Brien is a “dead man walking” with just weeks left in the top job, according to senior party sources.

Victorian Opposition leader Michael O’Brien has been described as a “dead man walking” with just weeks left in the top job.

Senior Liberal Party sources have confirmed Mr O’Brien will almost certainly face a fresh leadership challenge as soon as the party can meet again in person, which could be as early as August 3 when parliament returns after a five week winter break.

Mr O’Brien left many of his colleagues incensed this week after he appeared to backflip on the party’s position on border closures, criticising the government for being too slow to close the border to New South Wales.

“It was stupid. There is literally no other way to describe it,” one MP said.

“The messaging is all over the place. And it’s completely inconsistent with what we’ve been saying.

“None of it is philosophically consistent. We don’t support border closures. They can only ever be a last resort.”

Leader Victorian Liberal Party Michael O’Brien at Parliament House. Picture: David Caird

Mr O’Brien doubled down on the position on Thursday, saying the border shouldn’t be reopened until NSW had their outbreak under control.

“We’ve actually got to put Victoria first and that means we don’t reopen until we’re confident other states have got it under control,” he said.

He said it made no sense that the state government shut the border to NSW on New Year’s Eve when there where just 10 cases there, but waited until there were 78 cases there to close the border this month despite the increased threat of the Delta variant.

The comments came just two weeks after shadow minister Matthew Guy criticised the decision to close the border.

But Mr O’Brien said the messaging had been consistent, and the Mr Guy had been talking about the effect border closures had on border communities.

The Herald Sun has been told by several MPs, speaking on the condition of anonymity, that the comments took the party room by surprise and were out of line with the party’s official position.

“I can’t understand why he did it,” one said.

“He’s tried to have a positive thought bubble every day, but he’s just not cutting through.

“The concern is this guy is a former treasurer, and he’s advocating for border closures that have significant economic consequences.”

Brad Battin made a failed bid for the Liberal leadership earlier this year. Picture: Josie Hayden

It is understood major business leaders have threatened to cut off donations to the party without a leadership change.

Mr O’Brien has already survived one leadership challenge this year, with then shadow minister Brad Battin failing to get the numbers for a spill.

The move caused a deep divide in the party that meant any subsequent challenge would be doomed to fail.

But it is understood there is now enough support among MPs to topple Mr O’Brien.

The Herald Sun has been told Mr O’Brien will be encouraged to stand down from the top job, but will refuse to do so.

“It will be a bloodbath,” one senior source said.

Supporters of Mr O’Brien say he remains the party’s best hope and that he is polling better than former Liberal leader Ted Baillieu before he went on to win the 2010 election.

Recent polling shows Labor still lead the Coalition on a two party preferred basis 52.4 per cent to 47.6 per cent.

But ahead of the 2010 election Labor were further ahead, 56 per cent to 44 per cent, and Mr Baillieu was less popular than Mr O’Brien.

Former leader Matthew Guy, who Mr O’Brien replaced in 2018, has repeatedly ruled out any interest in the job.

But sources say he remains the most likely replacement.

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