Melbourne Airport warns of flight delays, national disruption if new runway not built

Four in every five peak evening flights in and out of Melbourne face being delayed or cancelled in 2025, sparking fears the logjam will hit consumers. This is what’s needed to stop it.

Melbourne Airport is set to be hit with an unprecedented period of delays.

Airline passengers face steeper fares and a blowout in flight delays as Melbourne airport fights to build a third runway.

Four in five evening peak flights could be delayed or cancelled by 2025, and it is feared the logjam could have a knock-on effect across the country, raising peak hour fares.

Passenger numbers at the airport are expected to nearly double to 67.8 million within 20 years.

Melbourne airport chief Lyell Strambi told the Sunday Herald Sun the consequences for travellers, airlines and the economy would be dire if the north-south runway was not in operation before the opening of Western Sydney International Airport in 2026.

Airlines and passengers could avoid Melbourne airport because of congestion and delays, Mr Strambi said.

CEO of Melbourne Airport Lyell Strambi on the tarmac. The airport needs a third runway to accommodate the increased demand for air travel. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Passenger numbers through Melbourne Airport are predicted to rocket from 37.4 million today to 47.2 million by 2025-26 and 67.8 million by 2037-38.

The airport last month announced it had shelved plans for a new east-west runway in favour of tarmac running north-south, which would take longer to plan and build.

A north-south runway had been found to be more viable and cost-effective than one running east-west in the long term, Mr Strambi said.

And its construction would lead to thousands of jobs, more travel routes out of Melbourne, cheaper airfares and would deliver a huge shot in the arm to the Victorian economy.

While the airport was sympathetic to neighbourhoods which would be exposed to aircraft noise and conscious of “sensitivities, such as schools or hospitals or parks”, the new runway’s orientation had to be based on the safest and most viable option, Mr Strambi said.

“We can’t simply change the plans because one group of residents would prefer the planes to go over someone else’s house,” he said.

The Melbourne-Sydney route is currently the second-busiest flight path in the world and has more than 54,000 flights a year.

Six of the 10 busiest routes in Australia include Melbourne, and more than half of all jet aircraft flying domestically land in Melbourne at some time during a day — one third of the domestic fleet by 10am each weekday.

Melbourne Airport is set to be hit with an unprecedented period of delays. Picture: Supplied.

Delays, particularly in peak periods such as Friday afternoons, are already common at Melbourne Airport, where as many as four in every 10 flights are delayed.

By mid-2025, delays could be standard across most working days, and “ripple across the country”, Mr Strambi said.

The Sunday Herald Sun understands airport analytics predicts that, in a worst-case scenario, by 2025 four in every five flights in and out of Melbourne Airport during peak evening periods would be delayed or cancelled, ahead of the new runway opening.

“If a plane is delayed arriving from Sydney into Melbourne and is then going to Brisbane, then that Brisbane service might also be delayed. If we don’t have the additional capacity in place before Western Sydney opens, that problem is exacerbated,” Mr Strambi said.

A new north-south runway — which was expected to take between 36 and 42 months to build and then had to be safety-tested before being used — needed to be operational by the second half of 2025, at the latest.

“If Melbourne’s (new) runway is late it will affect the entire domestic network,” Mr Strambi said.

The long-term runway plan for Melbourne Airport. Picture: Supplied.

The average daily international service to Melbourne Airport contributed $109 million to the Victorian economy each year and the average daily domestic service $16 million, he said.

“So if an international airline decided to land in Western Sydney because we couldn’t give them the daily time they want in Melbourne, then that’s a significant loss to the Victorian economy. If we were talking about say, two airlines from China, one from the US, one from the Middle East and one other from North Asia, then notionally that would be half-a-billion dollars a year of lost economic stimulus.”

But most importantly, delays and cancellations hurt commuters and travellers, he said.

“It’s hard to overstate how significant a problem that can be because it invariably translates into more expense for travellers. A lot of our weekday passenger traffic is due to business travellers between Melbourne and Sydney. If we get to an extreme point where we simply can’t accept another flight between, say, 7am and 8am, then the flights that are scheduled in that hour will become more expensive,” Mr Strambi said.

The federal government, which is expected to approve the airport’s new development plan, said it recognised the importance of world-class airport infrastructure in supporting economic growth and prosperity, and would consider the proposal carefully.

“A major development plan for a project of the scale and significance of a third runway at Melbourne Airport would be very detailed and complex, dealing with all of the proposal’s potential impacts on the environment and the community,” a Department of Infrastructure spokeswoman said.

Melbourne Airport chief Lyell Strambi warns there may be little time to consult with communities, ahead of the urgent construction of a third runway. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Mr Strambi said an extra runway would encourage competition between airlines to deliver new routes and competitive fares out of Melbourne, resulting in significant savings and new travel opportunities for consumers.

“On-time performance will be a massive win from day one of operation, especially given the pressure it will release compared to the weeks leading up to opening,” he said.

But the airport’s 11th-hour decision to reverse its original runway construction plan has been criticised by communities potentially affected by the change.

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Plans for an east-west runway have been in place since 2013, and the strip was originally set to open in 2023.

Asked why the late change of heart, Mr Strambi said Melbourne Airport always planned to have four runways eventually — two parallel running north-south and two parallel east-west.

This was still the long-term goal, and the only question was which new runway should be built first.

While an east-west runway was cheaper and faster to build than one running north-south, new data had emerged showing the latter was a better option.