Long range weather forecaster predicts mild conditions and rain for Christmas Day, Boxing Day

THE forecast is in for Christmas and Boxing Day. But getting Victorians to believe it could prove just as difficult as predicting ... Melbourne’s weather.

THE festive forecast is in — but getting Victorians to believe it could be as difficult as predicting, well ... the weather.

An independent long range weather expert says Melbourne is set for a mild Christmas, with rain for day one of the Boxing Day Test and above average winds for the Melbourne to Hobart yacht race.

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Veteran forecaster Dennis Luke said southern Australia’s summer would be a ‘dog’s breakfast’ with a cooler January on the cards as a La Nina weather system strengthens.

It comes just days after the Bureau of Meteorology was criticised for over reaching with its forecast, specifically for the city.

Melbourne is set for a mild Christmas, with rain for day one of the Boxing Day Test and above average winds for the Melbourne to Hobart yacht race. Picture: AAP Image/Mal Fairclough.

Mr Luke said the long hot nights in November were unlikely to be repeated this month.

“Melbourne’s average rainfall during a La Nina is above average, so for the rest of December you won’t get weather like we experienced in November,’’ he said.

“January will be pretty much the same, however February will in some cases be warmer, but not as hot as we’d hope for.’’

Christmas Day will be cool to mild with a shower or two, with temperatures from Melbourne to the coast ranging between 18-25 degrees, he said.

Conditions in the north of the state will be warmer.

“Unfortunately for cricket fans the Boxing Day test will be interrupted, as I’m expecting rain, and it will be cooler, 16-19 degrees.’’

Christmas Day will be cool to mild with a shower or two, with temperatures from Melbourne to the coast ranging between 18-25 degrees. Picture: David Crosling

He said winds would increase significantly for the Sydney to Hobart.

“Because of a front coming through on Christmas Day and rain on Boxing Day, off the coast of Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania these fronts will continue up until the new year.’’

While conceding he was not a meteorologist, Mr Luke said he had dedicated himself to studying weather events for decades and based the latest long term forecasts on computer modelling including information from the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service.

The long hot nights in November were unlikely to be repeated this month. Picture: AAP Image/Joe Castro.

He said the weather delivered by La Nina would be random, erratic and sometimes volatile.

He added the backlash the bureau faced in recent days should serve as a lesson.

“You’re damned if you do and you’re damned if you don’t,’’ Mr Luke said.

“But I think they will need to look on the kind of language they use in the future.

“The public had many different leaders sprinkling the same message ... people have become so blase’ about warnings that they have lost faith.’’