Liberal brand a ‘very damaged product in Victoria’, Redbridge Director Tony Barry says

The opposition has copped a major blow as it loses support from middle-aged voters, according to Redbridge polling.

The Victorian Liberal Party is facing an “existential crisis”, with the opposition losing its grip on middle-aged voters as it bleeds support from younger Victorians.

A new Redbridge poll of 2000 voters shows support for the Coalition among under 50s is dwindling, pushing the opposition’s hopes of winning the 2026 election even further out of reach.

On a two-party preferred basis, the Liberals would collect just 32 per cent of the vote among under 34s if an election was held today, compared to a whopping 68 per cent for Labor.

But the major blow for the Coalition was among those aged 35 to 49, with 62 per cent of votes headed for Labor.

The latest Redbridge poll is not happy reading for Opposition Leader John Pesutto. Picture: David Geraghty

The new Allan government has retained Labor’s commanding two-party lead over the opposition, 56 to 44, with the Liberals only ahead among those aged 65 and over.

In one sign of hope for the Coalition, it has managed to close in on first preferences, 37 to 36 – a shift from 36.66-34.48 at the November election.

However, according to the polling, the small success was due to former Liberal voters, predominantly aged 65 and over, making a return after switching to minor right-wing parties at the 2022 election.

Redbridge director and former ALP strategist Kos Samaras said the Coalition was facing “an existential crisis”, with its failure to attract younger voters “only getting worse”.

The new Allan government has retained Labor’s commanding two-party lead over the opposition. Picture: David Crosling

“If you look at anyone under the age of 50, the two-party preferred for Labor is in excess of 60 per cent,” he said.

“It used to be just under 40s, where these numbers are quite horrific. It’s now under 50.”

By 2026, “that’s going to be 55 per cent of voters”, he said.

Mr Samaras said the figures showed the Liberal Party needed to “bite the bullet” and bring forward younger leadership.

“We’re probably two election cycles away before we see a proper transition, where the Liberal team can redefine itself and fit nicely into the body politic of the state,” he said.

The Coalition is facing an ‘existential crisis’, Redbridge director and former ALP strategist Kos Samaras says. Picture: David Geraghty

Since Redbridge’s last poll in September, Labor has also increased its vote among those living in the state’s regional cities, including Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat, where 46 per cent of voters now plan to preference Labor first.

Redbridge director Tony Barry said the Liberal brand across Victoria “remains a very damaged product”.

“It’s not going to be fixed by a single issue or personality,” he said.

“It’s going to require more hard work, internal discipline and developing salient but differentiated policies that are underpinned by Liberal values.”

The polling also captured voters’ view of new Premier Jacinta Allan.

Most Victorians said they did not rate Premier Allan’s communication of her priorities and intentions, with just 23 per cent rating her skills good or very good, while 35 per cent rate it as poor or very poor.

Voters also said she was less qualified than Dan Andrews to address the challenges faced by Victorians.

This was particularly true for people with lower household incomes.

However, support for Ms Allan rose when voters were provided greater information on the new Premier’s backstory, including that she is a mum of two school aged children.

All Victorian major party leaders continued to score a negative approval rating.

Greens Leader Samantha Ratnam was the least popular leader, scoring a negative 21 approval rating.