Labor looks set to add extra seats at Victorian election, analysis shows

New electorate boundaries look set to hand Labor two extra seats at November’s state election, making the opposition’s rocky road back to power even more difficult.

Daniel Andrews’ government would extend it’s lead over the opposition, new analysis shows. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Labor looks set to add to its already commanding lead in the November state election if trends from the 2018 vote are replicated, a new analysis has shown.

The analysis document by the Victorian Electoral Commission, published on Monday, estimated how the two-candidate-preferred (2CP) votes would have fallen in 2018 under the revised boundaries.

If the last state election had used the electoral boundaries that will be in place for this year’s vote, the Andrews government would have won an extra two seats - on top of what they already hold, making the opposition’s quest for power even more difficult.

The analysis shows the currently held ALP seats of Bayswater and Bass - held by first termers Jackson Taylor and Jordan Crugnale, respectively - would fall to the Liberals.

But Labor would manage to steal Caulfield, Hastings, Ripon and the newly established seat of Pakenham (which would replace the soon-to-be abolished area of Gembrook).

If that transitioned later this year, the Liberals could lose deputy leader David Southwick (who holds Caulfield), as well as their manager for opposition business in parliament and key attack dog, Louise Staley (Ripon).

The independent MP for Mildura, Ali Cupper, also risks her seat going to the Nationals.

Premier Daniel Andrews would look to increase his two-candidate-preferred margin, from 62.71 per cent in 2018, to 65.8 per cent based on revised boundaries.

Asked about the analysis, deputy Premier Jacinta Allan said the community expected the government to fulfil their election promises rather than “sit around and speculate about what might happen”.

“There’s going to be a lot of conversation and chatter over the next three to four months about what may or may not happen on November 26,” she said.

“What we’re focused on today, and everyday, is the work we’re doing that the Victorian community voted for.”

Opposition leader Matthew Guy said everyone had a “different take” on redrawn boundaries.

“It depends on who you ask,” he said.

“The election is the election. Whatever the boundaries are, we’ll fight them.

“It’s as simple as that.”