Labor federal win locks in Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan’s leadership, insiders claim

Politicians from all parties were bracing for Victoria to be the swing state in the federal election, with several seats expected to change hands, but Liberals said the result was a disaster, while Labor MPs said it locked-in Premier Jacinta Allan’s leadership.

Victorian voters swung back behind the Albanese Government on election day, dashing Peter Dutton’s hopes the state would provide him a pathway to victory.

Early counting last night showed Labor on track to claim a majority and be re-elected, with its defence of key seats in Victoria a critical part of its victory.

Prior to Saturday’s election, Labor held 23 of 38 seats in Victoria, with the Coalition confident it would increase its paltry tally of 11.

Liberal Party figures were in despair on Saturday night, after polls earlier in the year suggested it could snaffle seats in Melbourne’s east, southeast, north and southeast.

Tony Burke embraces re-elected Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as Jodie Haydon and Nathan Alabense watch on. Picture: NewsWire

Instead, early voting suggested it may actually lose ground in Victoria, with seats such as Menzies and Deakin under siege from Labor candidates.

Teal MPs in Kooyong and Goldstein were also strongly defending their electorates, which could come down to pre poll and postal votes.

Victoria was ground zero of the final day of the federal election campaign as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton did a whistlestop tour of key seats.

Federal politicians from all parties had been bracing for Victoria to be the swing state, with several seats expected to change hands.

Re-elected PM Anthony Albanese.

But Liberals said the result was instead a disaster, while Labor MPs said it locked-in Premier Jacinta Allan’s leadership.

Ms Allan had faced increasing speculation about a potential coup amid expectations Labor would lose a swag of seats in Victoria.

The Premier also featured heavily in Liberal Party attack ads across the country.

Victorian Labor MPs were quick to throw their support behind Ms Allan, saying the result would put an end to speculation about her future.

“The commentary around Jacinta’s leadership has been ridiculous,” one MP said.

Another state Labor MP said it spelled trouble for the future of the Liberal Party in Victoria.

“This should absolutely put any speculation about Jacinta’s leadership to bed,” they said.

“Not only have we not lost seats, we’ve gained seats in Victoria. This is a vindication of both Albo’s and Jacinta’s leadership.

“The only ‘double trouble’ in Victoria is the existential threat to the Liberal Party.”

Victorian Liberals were last night reeling over the shock result with just 18 months before next year’s state election.

The party needs to win 16 seats to form government in Victoria, but concerns about how they would do that increased last night as the party failed to win back critical heartland seats.

Federal opposition immigration spokesman Dan Tehan said a root and branch party review was needed.

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan. Picture: David Crosling

“With what has happened, you need time to consider, time to think, and get an understanding of what has occurred,” he said.

“It’s an incredibly disappointing night. In the cold hard light of day we are going to have to do a proper analysis as to what has happened – the policies that worked, the policies that didn’t, as well as the campaign.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spent much of Saturday morning in Victoria, walking on to the hallowed turf of the MCG during morning TV appearances, reeling off sporting cliches such as how he had left nothing on the field while urging Victorians to help him form a majority government.

He then raced through Menzies in Melbourne’s east before returning to his home stage of NSW to cast his ballot with his fiance and son.

Mr Dutton raced through marginal seats he expected to be in play, including Goldstein – held by Teal Zoe Daniel, who unseated Liberal Tim Wilson in 2022.

He also blitzed Labor-held Macnamara, before making a tour of a petrol station in Gorton to sell his cheaper fuel policy one final time.

Member for Goldstein, Teal MP Zoe Daniel, unseated Liberal Tim Wilson in 2022. Picture: Getty Images

At the petrol station he filled up a truck that had an attack ad featuring Mr Albanese and Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan alongside the phrase “double trouble: more debt, more crime”.

He later flew home to Queensland to vote with his family.

Federal Liberals said dislike of the Allan Government, which had been struggling to deal with crime in recent months, helped its cause in a state that had traditionally leant left.

Melbourne’s eastern suburbs were a key battleground for major parties during the election campaign, while the Greens were taking aim at a series of inner city seats.

Pollsters and party insiders last night thought several seats remained in play, including Aston, Deakin, McEwen, Hawke, Menzies, Gorton, Goldstein, Kooyong, and Dunkley.

The Greens were accused of treachery by Labor last night, after appearing to run open tickets in two crucial seats in the east – surprising both ALP and Liberal strategists.

The minor party traditionally has run how-to-vote cards preferencing Labor in Menzies and Deakin in a bid to maintain their slogan of “keep Peter Dutton out”.

National secretary of the ALP, Paul Erickson, said open tickets would help the federal opposition and the Greens should be “embarrassed”.

“If the Greens were serious about keeping Peter Dutton out, they would not be helping the Liberals in a number of marginal seats, including hard-right figures like Michael Sukkar,” he said.

Some political figures said the move may have been payback for Labor’s move in Macnamara, where it ran an open ticket due to angst within the Jewish population about the Greens’ Middle East policies.

But the Greens said it was just a “scare campaign” by Labor on the final day of the campaign.