Issue that may cost teal MPs their seats at next election
The well-funded and well-organised teal MPs may struggle to hold ground in the next federal election following revelations about who voted for them.
Victoria
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Teal MPs are facing a challenge to hold ground in the 2025 federal election, with a new report revealing their supporter base is made up of “tactical Labor and Greens voters”.
A review of the May federal poll, released on Monday, reveals that fewer than one in five teal supporters had previously voted for the Coalition.
However, almost a third had voted Labor and a quarter backed the Greens at the 2019 election.
Their vote went to the teals because they were intent on unseating the incumbent Liberals and didn’t think Labor and the Greens were a viable alternative.
Co-author Dr Sarah Cameron from Griffith University said the well-funded and well-organised teal campaigns tapped into the frustrations voters had with Scott Morrison and the Coalition government. But Dr Cameron said voter disenchantment alone was not enough.
“The medium-term success of the teals will depend on how much they can create a distinct political identity to carry to the 2025 federal election,” she said.
In Melbourne, teal MPs unseated Liberals Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson in the respective seats of Kooyong and Goldstein.
The former treasurer had a 6.5 per cent swing against him, while Mr Wilson suffered a 12 per cent swing against him.
Co-author and ANU Prof Ian McAllister said the 2022 federal election saw a “large-scale abandonment” of the two major political parties, with their vote falling to historic lows.
“Voters are now less ‘rusted on’ to the major political parties and becoming more independently minded in their political choices,” Prof McAllister said.
“This trend has been driven by wider societal changes, such as the huge expansion of higher education, the turnover of generations, the rise of social media, and shifting issue priorities.”
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