Hopes for prisoner swap deal for ex-Melbourne Grammar student Oscar Jenkins

New footage of captured prisoner of war Oscar Jenkins has raised fresh hope he could be brought back to Australia in exchange for Russian prisoners.

Australian authorities will be negotiating with the US and UK governments about offering up their Russian prisoners in exchange for Melbourne teacher Oscar Jenkins.

War expert Mark Edele said if a new video of the prisoner of war could be verified as authentic, it was now “quite reasonable” to assume he was alive.

Despite not knowing when or where the footage was recorded, Professor Edele from the University of Melbourne said the greatest risk was being shot immediately after being captured.

“To me, it looks quite reasonable (that Mr Jenkins is alive) with the information we have,” he said.

“The most dangerous moment is capture and immediately after. The chances of being shot are highest on the frontline and then that risk decreases more and more as you get into the system.

“It seems to me that his chances now are relatively good given that he has survived the initial evacuation.”

Mr Jenkins volunteered to fight for Ukraine against Russia but was taken prisoner in the Donbas region.

In December, a video posted on social media showed him being questioned and struck by an interrogator.

An unverified video allegedly shows Australian POW Oscar Jenkins alive in Russian custody. Picture: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ_AlKODefw

It was reported the former Melbourne Grammar School student had been killed last month but the new video, released on Monday, gives fresh hope he is still alive.

In a third video, a topless Mr Jenkins is seen having his blood pressure taken seated in front of a flag showing the coat of arms of Russia.

His captors joke in Russian that he is “not dead”.

It was uploaded to the same account that released the second video.

The person taking his blood pressure is dressed in Russian military uniform and wearing blue medical gloves.

There is paperwork and a pen in front of the 32-year-old Australian who stares at the ground throughout the one minute video.

Mr Jenkins looks gaunt and appears to have string acting as a belt to hold up his trousers.

His captors failed to get an oxygen reading but his blood pressure appeared to be normal at 126 over 79.

A third video has emerged of Oscar Jenkins getting his blood pressure taken. Picture: Supplied

Prof Edele, who has studied prisoner taking and prisoner executions in the Red Army, said the video would be scrutinised for being a deep-fake – a video made using artificial intelligence.

But if found to be genuine, it would be likely negotiations had already started about Mr Jenkins being included in future prisoner swaps.

Australia would lean on its alliances with USA and the UK as they hold more high value Russian prisoners.

He pointed to a similar prisoner swap in August last year in which eight Russian prisoners were released in exchange for 16 US and European prisoners Russia was holding – including Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich.

The deal was the biggest prisoner exchange since the Cold War era.

There were also several exchanges of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine, the latest just last month.

In a video circulating Pro-Russian Telegram channels, Australian mercenary Oscar Jenkins is interrogated by Russian fighters after being captured in Donbas. Picture: Telegram

Captured soldiers are held in prisons, correctional facilities, government buildings and camps, predominantly in western Russia and Belarus but also Russian occupied parts of eastern Ukraine. Prisoners are frequently moved between facilities.

Prisoners are routinely beaten and tortured with weapons, including stun guns, intelligence sources said.

Former hostage Ihor Talalay said he was subjected to physical violence and verbal abuse.

“I was forced into a squat, where you have to sit in a crouched position with your hands behind your neck and without lifting your heels,” he said.

“We were expected to stay in this position for hours on end.”

He added: “Many people were unable to withstand the discomfort and started moving or standing up.

“The guards responded with violence, using truncheons or kicking the detainees.”

Professor Edele said Mr Jenkins was “lucky” if still alive.

“I think he was quite lucky, if he wasn’t executed, because the Russian notion of foreigners fighting for Ukraine is that they are mercenaries and the laws of war do not apply to them and hence their position is that they can do whatever they want to them,” he said.

He added: “That, of course, is a strange interpretation of international law. But it is widely held at the frontline.”