Health advice behind pandemic rules unveiled

The health advice used to justify prolonging mask rules under Daniel Andrews’ new pandemic laws has been revealed. But it’s missing some key details.

Covid hospitalisations and ICU admissions have peaked in Victoria according to the latest advice from chief health officer Brett Sutton.

New pandemic management laws now mandate the tabling of advice within 14 days of any declaration or order being made.

Daniel Andrews made the state’s first formal pandemic declaration under the laws last week, prompting the tabling of the first public health advice documents on Friday.

The 48-page report, titled Report to Parliament on the Making of a Pandemic Declaration, includes 25 pages of advice from Prof Sutton about the need for ongoing pandemic management.

In it he says Covid-19 remains a serious risk to public health, despite high vaccination rates in the Victorian population.

The ongoing high case numbers across Victoria, the recent easing of restrictions, and the increasing opening of borders also contribute to the ongoing risk, he said.

Prof Sutton said while vaccines remained crucial, they would not eliminate the risk to Victorians.

“The vaccination program in Victoria has been remarkably successful, achieving one of the highest vaccination rates globally,” he said.

“Vaccination alone will not, however, be sufficient to manage the risk that Covid-19 poses to the community and the hospital system.”

Prof Sutton said reasons for this included the lack of vaccine availability to children aged under 12 and the 339,000 eligible Victorians who had refused to be vaccinated.

READ THE FULL DOCUMENT HERE

He said there was also a risk further Covid variants would emerge against which vaccines were less effective.

But in good news for Victoria Prof Sutton said both hospitalisation and ICU bed utilisation rates due to Covid-19 appear to have peaked and are now stable.

And 90 per cent of Covid-19 cases admitted to ICU were unvaccinated.

Included in the advice are tables comparing the current public health restrictions of 11 other countries including the US, UK, Portugal and Ireland.

In his advice, chief health officer Brett Sutton said ‘vaccination alone’ would not be enough to combat the pandemic. Picture: Getty Images

The report showed that as at December 7, the estimated cumulative case fatality rates in Victoria was 0.15 per cent for people aged under 70, and 14.8 per cent for those older.

And of the 219,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases across Australia, 130,000 had been detected in Victoria.

Under the new pandemic management laws, the responsibility for making pandemic orders shifted from the chief health officer to the Premier and Health Minister.

“Having considered the advice of the Minister for Health and the chief health officer, the Premier was satisfied on reasonable grounds that Covid-19 is a pandemic disease that gives

rise to serious risk to public health throughout Victoria,” the report said.

“In reaching this conclusion, the Premier considered that Covid-19 is highly transmissible; causes serious illness and death; and unconstrained outbreaks of this disease across the world

have outpaced hospital capacities to a scale not witnessed in modern memory.

“An outbreak beyond the limits of Victoria’s healthcare system would be catastrophic, and imperil the health of all Victorians who require medical care, whether for Covid-19 or for other reasons.”

Leader of the Opposition in the Upper House, David Davis, said the advice didn’t go far enough.

“This is a deficient declaration,” he said.

“It hasn’t considered all aspects of the Victorian community, economy and social structure.

“Andrews, true to form, has relied on narrow health advice, glancing past any advice he may have received or not received on the impact on Victoria’s small businesses, jobs and the economy.

“What sort of dipstick makes a pandemic declaration without thinking and seeking detailed advice about how it will thump Victorian businesses and the economy.”