How we’re preparing for Melbourne’s population to top 8 million

MELBOURNE is tipped to reach a population of eight million by 2051, making us a city akin to Madrid or San Francisco. But how do we handle that growth?

MELBOURNE is set for a major population debate with the State Opposition claiming that almost doubling the city’s population to eight million by mid-century is unsustainable.

Fuelled mainly by high overseas migration, Melbourne is growing on average by 1800 people a week and is on track to overtake Sydney as the nation’s biggest metropolis within 20 years.

At 4.4 million today, Melbourne is tipped to reach six million by 2031, seven million by 2041 and eight million by 2051, according to official state projections.

Opposition Leader Matthew Guy said this was not on and the Coalition has set up an expert taskforce to advise on population issues.

“Victoria is going to become one great big city state with a great heaving metropolis in the middle of it and nothing else — it’s not sustainable,” he said.

Mr Guy, the former planning minister, said that Melbourne with eight million people would resemble the density of today’s Madrid or greater San Francisco.

“It’s a very big metropolitan area and I don’t think the vast majority of Melburnians want a city of eight million people, they want a liveable city,” he said.

Under Coalition policy, high density development is encouraged in the inner city with skyscrapers, and medium-to-high development in major suburban activity centres like central Ringwood, Box Hill and Dandenong.

“But you want the areas outside of that to be quiet peaceful neighbourhoods,” Mr Guy said.

Mr Guy is not calling for a cut to immigration, which is Federal Government-controlled, but wants much more population growth diverted to regional centres such as the Latrobe Valley, Wangaratta, Bendigo, Bairnsdale and Warrnambool.

“Victoria is a rich, multicultural community that we can be proud of, and the challenge of our state is not how many people come here or where they come from,” he said.

“It’s where people are choosing to live and how state governments provide incentives, choices, and business motivation to grow the whole of our state, and ensure that all Victorians can live happy and healthy lives.”

The Coalition’s population taskforce includes respected demographer Dr Bob Birrell, Property Council of Victoria executive Asher Judah, planning activist Joanna Stanley and former municipal administrator and councillor Jane Nathan.

Planning Minister Richard Wynne said the Andrews Government didn’t have a problem with Melbourne at eight million.

“This Government is unambiguously a supporter of population growth and diversity. End of story,” he said.

“The challenge for us is how do we manage that.”

Labor also supports promoting growth in the state’s regions, but says there is a lot of potential for residential development across Melbourne in so-called brownfield sites, which were formerly used for industrial or commercial purposes.

Most of Melbourne’s growth in coming decades will occur in municipalities like Wyndham to the city’s west and Casey in the southeast.

India is currently the top source country for migrants to Melbourne, followed by China, New Zealand and the UK.

BOOMING MELBOURNE

Municipality/Population 2011/population 2021/population 2031

City of Melbourne/100,200/177,000/229,800

Whittlesea/160,800/240,400/314,000

Wyndham/166,700/267,400/361,400

Casey/261,300/349,100/437,500

Greater Melbourne/4.17m/5.1m/6.06m

Source: Victoria in Future 2016

MELBOURNE’S TOP MIGRANT GROUPS AND WHERE THEY LIKE TO LIVE

British: 150,000 Bangholme, Mt Eliza, Mornington, Mt Martha

Indians: 106,600 Laverton, Williams Landing, Glen Huntly, Albion

Chinese: 90,900 Box Hill, Melbourne CBD, Box Hill North, Burwood

Italians: 68,800 Keilor Park, Avondale Heights, Airport West

New Zealanders 67,000 Truganina, Tarneit, Cranbourne West

Greeks: 48,000 Oakleigh, Clarinda, Hughesdale, Clayton South

Source: 2011 census