Future of footy: Soccer poses AFL’s biggest threat

SOCCER is the only major competitor that would be able to kill off plans for AFL’s global dominance. And the threat could drive dramatic game changes, experts have warned.

AFLX and the game Australia has known for 150 years could merge to produce a form of football the world will be ready to embrace in 2050. It’s the threat of a global monster — soccer — that could drive dramatic game changes.

Victoria University professor of international sport business Hans Westerbeek says 11-a-side — middle ground between AFLX’s seven players and 18 in the AFL — on smaller, rectangular fields makes sense.

“There’s only one major competitor that will be able to kill off AFL, and that’s soccer,” Westerbeek said.

AUSSIE RULES HEADED FOR PACIFIC REVOLUTION

North Melbourne’s Shaun Atley, AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan and St Kilda’s Jack Billings at the launch of the first AFLX season at Etihad Stadium. Picture: AAP Image/Joe Castro

“The question is how is AFL in 2050 going to combat the popularity and global appeal of soccer when you look at the changing demography of Australia.

“In 2050 we’ll have another 10-12 million people living here, most who come from cultural backgrounds that follow soccer.

“The difficulty of AFL to remain the dominant game is its first big challenge. You have three decades to turn 18 a side on a cricket pitch to 11 a side on a soccer pitch. That’s genuine visionary strategic planning.”

Keith Thomas, chief executive of China pioneer Port Adelaide, sees AFLX as having a large international footprint by 2050.

“Newly retired AFL stars, who have enjoyed the opportunity to extend their careers through the short-form game, are being joined by AFLX specialists in their own right, most of whom are Chinese nationals who have grown up playing AFLX,” Thomas said.

“The annual AFLX international carnival in Beijing is being streamed live throughout Asia and other parts of the world, having been accepted as a male and female Olympic demonstration sport for the past two Games.”

The Tigers run onto the field during the AFLX match between the GWS Giants and the Richmond Tigers at Allianz Stadium on February 17, 2018 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Westerbeek proposes radical rule changes that will assault the sensibilities of purists but which the academic says make perfect sense from a global perspective.

“There’s probably five or six different rules that are totally understood by the ‘in crowd’, but how are you going to explain that to people in the slums of Rio?” he said.

Getting rid of the 15m disposal rule — and hence, bouncing the ball — would make the game “more free flowing and easier to watch”.

Removing behinds could be an option, especially given the 11-a-side, rectangular pitch vision. “If I was on the AFL rules committee even now, I would strongly advocate for taking the bounce out now,” Westerbeek said.

“I can hear all the arguments coming out, why aficionados and diehards will say, ‘You can’t take the bounce out’, but actually, it’s very simple. You can.

“I would argue, design it so it appeals to the biggest audience you can possibly reach. It will be radical for a lot of people now, but in 32 years those people will have passed, moved on or accommodated to the new form of the game.”

Patrick Ambrose of the Bombers and David Mirra of the Hawks in action during the AFLX match between the Essendon Bombers and the Hawthorn Hawks. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images

Peter Jess, pioneering player agent and concussion campaigner, argues another soccer innovation could be required — an off-side rule to enhance player safety.

“The shoulder charge will be eliminated altogether,” he said

“We will adopt a new tackling regime. There may well be the introduction of an off-side rule which gives players the opportunity to have far more peripheral vision.”

Concussion awareness has advanced at pace in recent years and Jess envisions massive advances in the science of head knocks in 32 years.

“Players will be able to have a saliva test after every training session and every game and within 20 minutes they will know if their baselines show they have any neurological symptoms relating to concussion,” Jess said.

“We are not far off having sensors being attached to the body that will tell you if you have a collision, the severity of the collision and the transfer of energy.”

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