Future Melbourne: In which direction will Melbourne grow?

THE futurists imagine a hi-tech Melbourne where a city reaches for the sky and a chain of suburbs that spread effortlessly in every direction.

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THE futurists imagine a hi-tech Melbourne where a city reaches for the sky and a chain of suburbs that spread effortlessly in every direction.

But the reality is likely to be less science fiction and more practical — getting to work, finding a new kind of career, owning your home, and trying to defy the health issues that come with the steady march of age.

Economists and population experts expect that the city will maintain its job creation role in the years ahead, but the suburbs will take on an increasingly powerful role in growing jobs.

A key to that will be the creation of outer suburban hubs that provide appealing alternative job and housing options.

One of the areas will be southeast Melbourne, which is considered one of the most jobs-rich regions in the country.

Central to it is the Monash corridor where the university, health centres and service sector come together in a hotspot serviced by a major freeway.

Economist Marcus Spiller, of SGS Economics and Planning, believes Dandenong also has a strong claim on becoming Melbourne’s version of Sydney’s other city — Parramatta — occupying a strategic position due to its improving rail corridor and freeway access to Melbourne.

The number of jobs in the area is forecast to reach 188,000 by 2051, or a healthy annual increase of 1.72 per cent, predominantly in health care and social assistance.

Demographer Bernard Salt.

Demographer Bernard Salt identified the seismic shift in Melbourne’s population from the east to the west, with the new boom being driven by affordable housing in the western suburbs that are close to the CBD.

Tarneit, according to id — the population experts, is set to record the largest growth of any Melbourne suburb in the next 15 years, booming from a modest 21,566 in 2011 to a just under 75,000 by 2031.

The completion of the final section of the Regional Rail Link — from Tarneit to Wyndham Vale — in June 2015 boosted the likelihood of the western suburbs’ continued growth.

The demand for schools, childcare and services to match that growth will help drive jobs in to the west.

Where people will be living.

But while there’s been strong jobs creation in the outer or growth suburbs, it will not be strong enough to keep up with the overall population increase, according to economist Rob Hall, at id — the population experts.

There is a potential work trap in the years ahead.

Many of the jobs will be casual or part time, especially in the health and aged care sector.

But will those jobs pay enough?

Will they provide enough long-term security?

As house prices increase — and inequality grows — this could pose problems for those workers seeking to move closer to the city and into the areas where fulltime jobs are available.

Compounding all of this is the expected road, rail and public transport problems.

Infrastructure Victoria’s comprehensive blueprint for the future of actually getting around Melbourne, the suburbs and Victorian regions will be presented to Parliament by the end of the year.

But it is debatable that big ticket projects — such as the North East Link and the $10.9 billion MetroRail — will get commuters any closer to the work-life Nirvana of being only 20 minutes from home.

Instead, it will take workers 65-70 minutes on public transport to get to their “nearest national employment cluster’’ by 2046, according to Infrastructure Victoria.

A car ride will only take 20-25 minutes.

The difference in travel time is largely because Melbourne’s public transport system draws people in to the city.

It is usually quicker to move across or around the city, rather than in it or through it.

And that’s probably going to remain the case for the next 30 years.