Future Melbourne: How city’s sprawl will affect food prices

THE cost of filling up your shopping trolley could skyrocket if we don’t properly plan Melbourne’s rapid suburban sprawl, experts warn. Here’s why.

CHANCES are that broccoli for tonight’s stir-fry or those strawberries from the weekend farmers’ market were grown just kilometres away on the city fringe.

Melbourne’s “foodbowl” currently meets 41 per cent of the city’s food needs, but that could plunge to just 18 per cent by 2050, as the population booms and urban sprawl eats into valuable farm land, research shows.

Prices will skyrocket as food supply decreases and demand rises, and the distance grows between farm and plate.

FUTURE MELBOURNE: SEE WHAT’S PLANNED FOR OUR CITY

In a report on Melbourne’s food future, project head Dr Rachel Carey, from the University of Melbourne, says governments must choose now between housing or safeguarding some the state’s most productive land for food production.

“We tend to think of food as grown out in the regional areas, not around a city, so I think most people would be surprised to find just how much food actually grows on Melbourne’s fringe,” she said.

“Unless we start to plan the city differently and in a way that protects and retains that city foodbowl, we’re likely to be looking at less access to less locally grown food in future and the potential impact of that is a spike in food prices.”

Dr Carey’s findings are based on municipal data showing that Melbourne’s population will reach seven million in 2050, which means we’ll need at least 60 per cent more fresh food to meet the city’s needs.

However, other estimates put population growth at eight and up to nine million by 2050, so the problem might be much worse.

Because cities have been built on some of Australia’s most fertile soil, urban encroachment on farmland is an issue across the country as the population swells.

A dwindling foodbowl will mean greater dependence on more distant food sources, which are becoming increasingly unreliable due to climate change and extreme weather events like cyclones and flooding.

“We need to think of the foodbowl on the fringe of the city as a buffer or insurance policy against these sorts of pressures that we’re likely face against our food supply in future,” Dr Carey said.

“It’s a way of retaining some fresh food production locally without becoming entirely dependent on more distant sources.”

Being close to the city gives farms access to recycled water and reliable labour.

It also means highly perishable crops such as leafy greens and berries are closer to key markets.

More than 90 per cent of some perishable crops, including berries, cauliflower, asparagus and herbs, come from Melbourne’s inner foodbowl in shires such as Melton, Wyndham, Whittlesea and Casey — all areas experiencing rapid urban growth.

Werribee South, 30km west of Melbourne in the Wyndham City Council, represents only 0.02 per cent of the state’s agricultural land but produces 10 per cent of Victoria’s vegetables, including 85 cent of the State’s cauliflower, 53 per cent of the broccoli and 34 per cent of the lettuce.

Wyndham City director of city economy, innovation and livability Kate Roffey said the council was committed to protecting its farming areas.

“Wyndham City Council is proud of the role (it) plays in providing significant volumes of fresh produce to Victoria and has always been a strong supporter of the need to protect our farming areas like the Werribee South Green Wedge,” she said.

“We’re continuously working in partnership with the State and Federal Governments, and other key bodies such as Southern Rural Water, to support initiatives that will strengthen our agricultural areas.”

Farmer Wayne Shields on his farm, Peninsula Fresh Organics, in Baxter. Picture: Eugene Hyland

Fifth-generation market gardener Wayne Shields grows crops such as lettuce, carrots, spring onion, bok choi, spinach, kale and broccoli on his 16ha Peninsula Fresh Organics on Melbourne’s urban growth boundary at Baxter, south of Frankston.

He said while the benefits of farming close to Melbourne includes a frost-free climate, access to labour, and proximity to markets, ports and customers, land banking in the area (where large blocks of land are bought for future sale or development) had driven prices up and reduced his ability to buy more land even though it has the green wedge overlay.

He has another 40ha in NSW on the Murray River at Barham, 300km north of Melbourne, where land is much cheaper.

His farm has been in his family since the 1970s, when the Mornington Peninsula was a quiet rural retreat.

Today, it is surrounded by housing and hobby farms.

Melbourne’s urban sprawl puts the city’s fringe farms under threat. Picture: Eugene Hyland

“The biggest issue of having suburban and lifestyle neighbours is some consider our normal farming operations disturbing — tractor noise, dust, the smell from compost and duck disruption, which is ironic as the lifestyle blocks have caused ducks to become over populated in this area,” said Mr Shields, who is also president of the Victorian Farmers’ Markets Association.

Last year, he lost 90 per cent of his summer lettuce crop and laid off three workers because of damage caused by ducks.

Dr Carey’s recommendations for protecting the foodbowl include creating a fixed urban growth boundary, a labelling system to promote food grown in the foodbowl, potential use of stormwater in city-fringe farming and a grant scheme for enterprises that use second-grade produce from the foodbowl.

“A lot of produce gets wasted because it doesn’t meet the tight specifications and standards of the major supermarkets,” she said.

“It’s food that doesn’t have the right size, appearance or shape but is perfectly edible, so we need to look at ways to better use of that produce that can currently go to waste because it’s too expensive for farmers to pick, pack and ship for sale.”

Dr Carey added that governments must try to curb urban sprawl by increasing the density in existing urban areas.

“The more development in existing urban areas means less on the fringe and avoiding those areas of highly fertile land,” she said.

“The key question is: do we think it’s important that Melbourne should have access to fresh, locally grown food in future so we don’t become highly dependent on more distant sources of food and if the answer is yes, we need to plan differently to retain that foodbowl.”

But leading demographer Bernard Salt was confident population growth and food production could coexist.

“I’d like to think that with better production and more efficiency in agribusiness in the future, we can keep the cost of food down,” he said.

“We’re a big continent with large tracts of fertile land so yes we might be losing some asparagus hectarage in Cranbourne, but I think that Shepparton, for example, could make up for that.

“While we’re a big city by Australian standards, we’re not by world standards. As long as (population growth) is well managed, there’s no reason why a city of eight million people (in 2050) can’t be more productive and more liveable than the city we have today.”

MORE FUTURE MELBOURNE

MELBOURNE’S SKYLINE OF THE FUTURE