Fears for grim Victorian bushfire season after warmest year in 125,000 years

A new climate report shows this year is on track to be the warmest in over 100,000 years. Here’s what it might mean for Victoria’s bushfire risk this summer.

It was the warmest October on record across the globe.

A scorching October puts this year on track to be the hottest in 125,000 years, as experts warn Victoria’s upcoming bushfire season could be “catastrophic”.

Last month broke global monthly heat records for the fifth time this year, data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service on Wednesday revealed.

October recorded an average surface air temperature of 15.3C – smashing the previous record set in 2019 by 0.4C.

“When we combine our data with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, then we can say that this is the warmest year for the last 125,000 years,” deputy director of the service Samantha Burgess told Reuters.

She described the October temperature anomaly as “very extreme”.

An agency statement said that this meant 2023 was “virtually certain” to be the hottest on record.

The first 10 months of 2023 have recorded the highest global mean temperature at 1.43C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

This year is 0.1C hotter than the 10-month average for 2016 – the warmest year on record.

Sea surface temperatures hit an average of 20.79C, the highest on record for October, the data also shows.

Victorians are bracing for a grim bushfire season. Picture: Peter Parks

The report says the heat is a result of continued greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, combined with the emergence this year of the El Nino weather pattern.

Monash University associate professor in the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment Dr Ailie Gallant described the data as “astonishing”.

“What’s shocking about the October record is the extent to which it has been smashed. 0.4 degrees is not breaking the record, it’s smashing it,” she said.

Mallacoota was hit hard during the Black Summer. Picture: David Caird

Dr Gallant warned Victoria and eastern parts of Australia were at a higher risk for bushfires this year.

“We have already had significant fires through New South Wales and Queensland,” she said.

“Global warming together with El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (where the west ocean warms in comparison to the east) makes Australia a lot hotter and drier.”

She said that warming would continue without aggressive action to limit greenhouse gases.

Melbourne University climate scientist Dr Andrew King said Australia is experiencing “unprecedented extreme heats”.

“While October wasn’t exceptionally hot, winter and September were very warm in Australia,” he said.

“We should be concerned for the bushfire season and stay on high alert.”

The data comes weeks before COP28, the annual United Nations climate meeting.