Experts fear Melbourne’s northern fringe will become ‘transport nightmare’ under new govt land release
The rolling hills of Melbourne’s northern fringe are set to become fence-to-fence housing estates under a new government plan — but experts have warned the region’s infrastructure won’t be able to cope.
Victoria
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Melbourne’s northern fringe could become a locked-up “transport nightmare” if the government fails to upgrade infrastructure before its mammoth release of housing estates, experts have warned.
The vast rolling green hills of Wallan and Beveridge, about an hour north of the CBD, will be turned into fence-to-fence blocks under an Allan government bid to address the state’s housing crisis.
The freshly announced 10-year plan for Melbourne’s greenfields unlocked 27 new plots of land across Victoria for housing and commercial development.
These will join a collection of pre-announced precinct structure plans (PSPs) which have long been subject to delays, and many of which are in the Mitchell Shire.
The government could increase the number of houses planned for these PSPs if surrounding infrastructure supports it.
Statewide, the rollout is expected to make room for 180,000 new homes over the next 10 years.
40,000 of these new homes, or 20 per cent of the entire rollout, will be built in the southern ward of the Mitchell Shire in and around Wallan and Beveridge.
Part of a major growth corridor, the population in these two suburbs is projected to more than triple from 29,000 to 124,000 within the next 16 years.
But residents, transport experts and even the local council say the region will not be able to cope with the influx of additional people without further investment from the state government to manage the already crippling transport infrastructure.
V/Line at ‘breaking point’
The major growth corridor is still being serviced by country V/Line trains, which are at “breaking point”, according to Daniel Bowen of the Public Transport Users Association (PTUA).
The Seymour line saw 27 per cent growth in patrons year-on-year, with numbers still yet to hit pre-Covid counts.
Donnybrook station alone saw 50 per cent more commuters in 2023-24 than it did the year prior, skyrocketing from 84,000 to 125,550 travellers.
That’s more commuters seen year-long at either Darebin, Rushall or Eaglemont metro stations.
“Having to stand all the way into Melbourne in a cramped carriage is commonplace,” Mr Bowen said.
“They mostly run only once an hour. They’re mostly short, two-carriage trains … They (trains) haven’t coped with the growth.”
Commuters say V/Line failed to accommodate for major growth on the Seymour line after fare caps were introduced last year, which led to more people catching trains.
Forced to stand for lengthy trips into Southern Cross after missing out on a seat, commuters have for years called for additional rolling stock and reprioritisation of carriages to peak time services on the line.
They say jam-packed platforms and unorganised responses to major delays are too regularly occurring on the country service.
Mitchell Shire resident Nicole Phelan, who commutes from Kilmore, is all too familiar with the commuter chaos.
She spent nearly five hours trying to get home after her regular Seymour service, and those following, were cancelled after an incident on the Craigieburn line earlier this year.
“As soon as I got there, I was directed to the coaches. There were hundreds of people waiting,” she said.
“I sat at Southern Cross for maybe two hours waiting for coaches that just never seemed to come. There were probably about three that turned up in that whole time.”
Eventually, crammed buses dropped passengers at Craigieburn station, where Ms Phelan was left stranded without information for those travelling beyond Wallan.
“They had coaches waiting at Craigieburn that took people to Mickleham, Beveridge, Wallan, but everyone else was just stuck there waiting in the freezing cold wind,” Ms Phelan said.
“People on the platform were calling up V/Line to get updates, not the staff on the ground giving us updates.”
No coaches to Kilmore ever came, forcing her to wait for an evening train service after the incident was finally cleared.
“I don’t think I got home until 9pm that night,” she said.
Experts say without investment in upgrades now, the government risks bottlenecking the region and leaving thousands of families without reliable transport.
“As more people move into this area, it’s likely that some won’t be able to fit on board the trains, and face a 30 to 60 minute wait for the next service,” Mr Bowen said.
“The risk is that for some people in these suburbs, the dream home becomes a transport nightmare.”
Mitchell Shire Council acknowledged that growth had “often outpaced infrastructure” in Wallan and Beveridge.
CEO Brett Luxford welcomed the “structured approach” for housing growth, but echoed experts’ calls for a “guaranteed infrastructure pipeline” to manage the new estates.
“While the timeline of four to eight years reflects the need for comprehensive planning, we stress the importance of aligning this process with a guaranteed infrastructure pipeline to meet the needs of our rapidly growing communities,” he said.
“The inclusion of Beveridge South West PSP is particularly welcomed, as it unlocks significant housing opportunities and delivers key transport infrastructure, including a major north-south arterial road to improve connectivity across the region.”
One Mitchell housing PSP is set to be released to developers for construction by the end of 2028 and another four by the end of 2033. In the final stage of the 10-year rollout, planning for the Beveridge North East PSP will commence in the early 2030s, but a completion date for this PSP has yet to be set.
The state government said in its 10-year plan that: “Staging provisions will be included in future PSPs as required to ensure infrastructure delivery keeps pace with development and land can be adequately serviced when it is released.”
The government recently announced a new $150 million round of funding for outer-suburban infrastructure upgrades, including in Mitchell, delivered through contributions from property developers.
A previous round of funding delivered bus services from Donnybrook to Craigieburn, costing $8.29m.
The government also announced a “landmark project with developers” which is expected to “change the way local infrastructure funding in Victoria is raised and spent.”
This will include a new working group, which will deliver a report in early 2025 with options to enable more community infrastructure — such as roads, community facilities and open spaces — to be delivered alongside new housing development.
“We’ve invested billions in building and upgrading schools, hospitals and transport infrastructure, to deliver better services to some of the fastest growing communities in Melbourne’s north,” a government spokesperson said.
Government knew of need for ‘alternative’ train route
The state government has known about and planned to address the V/Line commuter havoc for years, but is yet to deliver on proposed plans.
12 years ago, PTV released plans to extend the Upfield line to Wallan.
“With train frequencies increasing rapidly on the Craigieburn line, there will be a need to find an alternative route for regional services from Seymour,” the 2012 plans stated.
The extension would have reduced pressure on the Craigieburn line and improved travel times for Seymour services.
Yet, more than a decade later, the project has not been funded.
“There’s been no hints that the government actually plans to invest in that money to make that (Upfield line extension) happen,” Mr Bowen said.
Infrastructure Victoria — an independent advisory body to the state government — more recently recommended the government address the overcrowding in its 30-year strategy for the state.
“The Victorian Government should extend electrified metropolitan train services to Beveridge, and determine whether there is a further need to extend to Wallan in the future,” the report said.
CEO of Infrastructure Victoria Dr Jonathan Spear said meeting the demand for infrastructure in the north was an “ongoing challenge for governments.”
“Our research shows many approaches are needed including published long-term plans for infrastructure delivery, changes to the developer contribution system to better reflect the true cost of providing infrastructure in different settings, and reforms which encourage more people to find affordable housing choices in established areas, to ease the pressure on growth areas,” he said.
A government spokesperson maintained that the addition of 19 weekly services on the Shepparton line, which also services Mitchell Shire, had provided more travel options for passengers in the north.
Donnybrook and Wallan stations were also upgraded as part of the North East Line upgrade, which included the addition of new platform shelters, improved pedestrian access and security, 150 new car parking spaces at Donnybrook and an extension to the waiting room at Wallan.
The government also confirmed that planning was underway for trains every hour on the Seymour Line between 8am and 9pm on weekends and to increase the number of weekend return Shepparton Line services from three to five.
However, V/Line and the Department of Planning failed to answer questions on the potential electrification of the line, or specifics on the number of carriages currently servicing the line compared to before the pandemic.
Mitchell’s roads copping the fallout
The lack of V/Line investment has had flow-on effects on Mitchell’s road network, Mr Bowen said.
Without regular trains, residents are regularly stuck in “locked up” traffic through town, where single lanes are failing to accommodate the influx of commuters.
And still without the promised Kilmore bypass, trucks carrying livestock have no other choice but to squeeze their way through bumper-to-bumper traffic on tight single lanes toward the Hume.
Mr Bowen said without investment in reliable, regular services in the growth corridor, the state government would by default cause existing roads to bottleneck against “horrendous” daily traffic.
“At the moment, people move in, and there’s very few public transport options, and I think most people just end up buying a car for every adult in the family, and that means heavy traffic, and it also means a huge burden on households to run all these cars,” he said.
“The government do have responsibility to provide transport options for people.
“You can’t just plonk tens of thousands of people into a new suburb without giving them decent transport options.
“The infrastructure and the services absolutely have to be there, otherwise you’re just creating more traffic jams and more car dependency and more pressure on household budgets as people move in.”
Traffic volumes on the Hume Freeway to and from Wallan are expected to be at capacity during peak periods by 2031, according to an Australian Infrastructure Audit.
The Victorian government has two ‘Big Build’ projects in Beveridge and Wallan to address congestion — the Camerons Lane Interchange and the Watson Street Interchange upgrade — but construction timelines are yet to be determined for either project.
Meanwhile, the shire’s road network remains in the worst state residents have ever seen — plagued by potholes and broken unpaved surfaces, and regularly left gaping without repair for months on end.
“On Watson Street, there’s two potholes that have been there for as long as I’ve been here — since 2022,” Wallan resident Pardeep Malik said.
“They’ve been fixed couple of times, but they’ve never done a correct job.
“They just doing some quick fixing, which is not the answer,” he said.
Do you have a story to tell about commuting from the Mitchell Shire? Tell us in the comments.
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