Daniel Andrews CFA union backing damaging federal Labor’s election campaign

DANIEL Andrews’s backing of the union takeover of the CFA has damaged Bill Shorten’s election campaign, with up to half of voters less likely to vote Labor because of it.

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DANIEL Andrews’s backing of the union takeover of the CFA has damaged Bill Shorten’s election campaign, with up to half of voters less likely to vote Labor because of it.

And with just one week to go until the election, Labor is falling short in key marginals across the country. If the result is replicated evenly across ­Australia, Labor will be heading for an election loss.

Galaxy polling conducted exclusively for the Herald Sun in 18 key marginal seats across four states and 10,000 voters shows Labor would likely pick up only two new seats, while two more are too close to call.

In Victoria, it looks likely no seats will change hands, with Labor failing to make a single gain in Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s home state.

The polling of about 500 people in each seat shows that despite some Labor gains, Malcolm Turnbull’s Liberals would retain Corangamite and Dunkley, both with a two-party preferred lead of 53-47.

The seats of Bruce and ­McEwen would remain in Labor hands, both on 52-48 per cent two-party preferred.

Bill Shorten sits for a briefing during a tour of the Royal Australian Air Force Base. Picture: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

Galaxy Research managing director David Briggs said Mr Andrews’s actions were “costing federal Labor votes”.

“While this is unlikely to result in the loss of any Labor-held seats in Victoria, it will hinder their chances of delivering any gains,’’ he said.

“The likelihood now is that Victoria is unlikely to deliver any of the gains Bill Shorten and Labor will need if they are to form government. The swing to Labor across these seats may have been bigger had it not been for the for the decision by Daniel Andrews and the State Government to support the United Firefighters Union.

“Only around one in three voters in these seats say this issue will not influence their vote and those who say they are now less likely to vote Labor after this decision outnumbers those more likely to vote Labor by a factor of two or three to one.’’ Labor has just 55 seats in the House of Representatives and needs to pick up 21 seats to take government, requiring a 4 per cent swing. This poll has it falling short of the 76 seats required for a majority win. The polling showed that in outer-suburban Dunkley, 50 per cent of those polled said the CFA debacle would make them less likely to vote Labor, while 17 per cent were more likely to vote Labor.

In the bushfire-prone seat of McEwen, 43 per cent would be less likely to vote Labor while 22 per cent said they’d be more likely to.

In Bruce, 44 per cent said they’d be less likely to vote Labor because of the CFA dispute, while 15 per cent were more likely to support Labor.

Corangamite, with its big CFA presence, showed 16 per cent would be more likely to vote Labor and 47 per cent less likely. Across the four seats, between 30 per cent and 37 per cent said it would not influence their votes.

The polling, done from Monday to Wednesday, showed the Liberals were on track to hold a swag of marginal seats in western Sydney and the fast-rising Nick Xenophon Team party in South Australia might determine the result in several seats.

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