‘Crystal ball’ test key to preventing ill health in the future

A ‘crystal ball’ set of tests to predict who will suffer disabilities including dementia in their older age has been developed, providing hope some can be staved off.

Monash University researchers have developed a test that could prevent future poor health.

A crystal ball to predict who will suffer disabilities years before they strike has been developed by researchers hoping to prevent generations suffering poor health in old age.

By using new predictive measures – including a cognitive test, walking speed and grip strength – the Monash University-led team believe doctors can identify patients who will go on to have healthy, disability-free old age, as well as those needing interventions.

After using artificial intelligence to analyse health data from more than 19,000 healthy over-65s in Australia and the US, the Monash and German researchers have traced the factors most frequently resulting in physical and cognitive disabilities such as dementia within five years.

Lead researcher Dr Johannes Neumann said the Monash model created a set of objective measures to identify who may need interventions such as improved diet and exercise programs to continue independent living.

“If we know what predicts this disability-free survival, we then can take the next step to look at possible interventions on how we can approach this and how we can potentially modify the risks,” Dr Neumann said.

“We have now three key measures which we need to be very aware of, and which a physician in general practice should have on their mind to see who might be at risk of developing physical or mental disability within the next months and years, and who might be suitable for potential interventions.

“These risk factors are important for everyone also at a younger age. It is important to highlight that these risk factors ... become more relevant as we age.”

Besides a person’s age, the study, published in GeroScience journal, found the most vital factors in predicting future cognitive and physical disability were:

• LOWER scores on a mini-mental exam called the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination, with every five-point increase in results equating to 30 per cent less chance of having a disability in old age.

• SLOWER gait speed, with a decrease in walking speed from one metre per second to half a metre per second corresponding with a 64 per cent increased risk for men and a 271 per cent increased chance for women of having a disability.

• HAVING a lower grip strength.

As well as the three major indicators, the analysis of data in Monash’s huge ASPREE data set reinforced that having an elevated or lower body mass index had a major impact on health issues as we age.

The collaboration with Professor John McNeil and his Monash team also revealed gender-specific predictors, with men facing a 195 per cent increased risk of earlier onset of death, dementia or disability if they smoke, as well as a heightened risk if they had abnormal measures of kidney disease.

Women face an additional 30 per cent risk of disability if they have diabetes and a 47 per cent heightened chance of disability if they have depression.

Dr Neumann, who is a visiting research cardiologist at Monash from Hamburg’s University Heart, Vascular Centre, said the earlier in life the predictive measures were assessed, the more that could be done to stave off disability.

But with 900 million people aged 60-plus now spread around the globe – and the elderly populations set to double by 2050 – Dr Neumann said it was vital for individuals and communities to introduce social and exercise programs for those most at risk.