Coronavirus crisis: Why hasn’t Victoria gone into lockdown?

It’s likely a fair number of Victorians will get coronavirus. And until there’s a vaccine, shutting down mass gatherings might be the best weapon we have. But does that mean we should do it now?

Why don’t health authorities just shut the state down now?

With fears the Grand Prix, start of the AFL season, concerts or any other mass gathering could cause COVID-19 to spread uncontrollably, it’s understandable Victorians are asking why the events are still allowed to go ahead.

Australia’s chief health officers have confirmed they are looking at trigger points for when they will implement “social distancing” measures.

Until the world develops a vaccine, the ability to shut down mass gatherings is the best weapon they have against coronavirus.

But they will only get one shot at it, so the timing must be right.

So far almost all of Australia’s COVID-19 cases have been imported from people flying into the country already infected.

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Banning people gathering in public will have little if any effect at the moment.

Worse, health authorities know that banning people going about their lives will soon wear thin if it is not done for very good reason.

If that happens before COVID-19 begins to pass through the community, then their best hope of having public support to stop the virus’ rampant spreads will have been wasted.

In the coming weeks, or hopefully months, the number of coronavirus transmissions spreading from person-to-person will pass cases coming in from overseas.

That is when authorities plan to fire their best shot.

While they won’t say it so bluntly in public, the nation’s top health experts are resigned to the fact that many – possibly even most – of us will get coronavirus.

But the vast majority of cases will be minor, with some people’s symptoms so slight they may never even know they had it.

Carey Baptist Grammar has closed after confirming a teacher has the virus. Picture: Sarah Matray

This leaves the experts with two choices:

1. Let COVID-19 pass through as quickly as possible and hope for the best;

2. Slow its progress so that the same number or fewer people get it, but it will be over a much longer and more controlled period.

Great effort is focusing on the second option.

By placing timely hurdles to slow the spread, authorities hope to insulate the most vulnerable people in nursing homes or with other health conditions for whom it is a matter of life and death.

This would also spread the load more evenly on hospitals as they brace for flu season.

And, if coronavirus can be kept at bay long enough, there may even be hope of vaccines or other treatments able to curtail its impact in the longer term.

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