Coalition records best primary vote result since June 2021: poll

For the first time in almost three years the Coalition’s primary vote has overtaken Labor’s – raising concerns from senior ALP figures about the downward trend.

The Coalition’s primary vote has overtaken Labor in Victoria for the first time in almost three years.

A new statewide poll of 1559 Victorians shows the Coalition’s primary vote has jumped 4 per cent to 38, its best result since June 2021.

At the same time, Labor’s vote has dipped to 36 per cent, slightly lower than the 37 it recorded at the 2022 election.

On two-party preferred, Labor still leads the Coalition 54 to 46, but senior ALP figures have raised concerns about a continuing downward trend.

The Coalition’s primary vote has jumped 4 per cent to 38, its best result since June 2021. Picture: Josie Hayden

The party recorded 55 per cent of the vote at the 2022 election, and 57.3 per cent at the 2018 election.

The statewide RedBridge poll, conducted between March 14 and 20, showed Labor is still most appealing to voters who do not own their own home, the non-religious, young voters and those with the most amount of financial stress.

The Coalition is struggling to attract young voters, but remains popular with voters aged 65 and older, those with less than a year 12 education and homeowners.

The result is expected to ease leadership tensions within the Liberal Party, which has been plagued by ongoing speculation about a potential spill.

Opposition Leader John Pesutto has for months faced fierce internal criticism over his leadership and concerns multiple legal actions are distracting him from the top job.

The strong poll result, the best since former leader Michael O’Brien recorded a 41 per cent primary vote in June 2021, is expected to boost support for the leader.

The same polling showed the Coalition closing in on Labor 48 to 52 on a two-party preferred basis.

Senior ALP figures have raised concerns about a continuing downward trend. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

On Monday, Premier Jacinta Allan said she wasn’t focused on polling.

“There’s a few polls around today and I can also predict that there’ll be a few more polls over the years ahead,” she said.

“What I’m focused on is the task that is what matters to Victorians.”

Asked what could be behind the dip in Labor’s primary vote, Ms Allan said: “I’m not going to start to become a political commentator on individual polls.”

“Polls come and go,” she added.

RedBridge director Kos Samaras said the findings reflected a nationwide trend away from the minor parties.

“Voters who have historically supported minor parties on the Right side of politics are becoming increasingly strategic, opting to throw their support behind the Coalition,” he said.

“This trend is expected to persist, particularly when Labor holds power at both federal and state levels.

“Notably, there are no indications that the Coalition is drawing votes away from the Jacinta Allan Labor government; rather, it appears to be attracting support from a pool of conservative voters.

Former Liberal strategist Tony Barry, now a director with RedBridge, said the poll showed the Coalition could put itself in a winning position before the 2026 state election.

“With a primary vote now higher than Labor’s, the Coalition are back into a semi-competitive position,” he said.

“There is still a lot of work to be done expanding the Gen Y and Gen Z cohort as well as regional centres, which Labor has dominated since Bracks and Brumby won those areas in 1999.

“Now that the Liberal Party has secured a beachhead with a primary vote in the high-30s, the key is for that rump of Liberal MPs who have been undermining the leader to now focus on their real jobs, show some discipline and loyalty and stop making the party the issue.”

The poll showed the Greens vote was down about 1.5 per cent to 10 per cent.