Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook dismissed as worthless

IF you always thought weather forecasters didn’t know what they were talking about, it turns out you might be right, with the Bureau of Meteorology’s three-month rainfall outlook labelled grossly inaccurate.

In most years the forecast bears little resemblance to reality. Picture: AAP

THE Bureau of Meteorology’s three-month rainfall outlook is grossly inaccurate, despite massive taxpayer investments in new forecasting technologies.

A comparison by The Weekly Times of the BOM’s forecast outlook versus actual rainfall, shows in most years the forecast bears little resemblance to reality.

Of the 14 outlooks examined over the past seven years, only three were close to the actual rainfall recorded over the forecast period.

BOM’S THREE-MONTH FORECAST VERSUS ACTUAL RAINFALL

RAINFALL OUTLOOKS LEAD TO FARMER DISILLUSiON

Victorian Farmers Federation president David Jochinke said gaining an accurate outlook was at the top of his wish list, but as things stood it was a toss-up between the BOM’s outlook or watching the chooks, to work out what the weather was going to do.

An analysis has shown the BOM forecast outlook is rarely accurate. Picture: Ian Currie

“These long-term forecasts’ accuracy is pretty ordinary,” Mr Jochinke said. “I don’t know who or what to believe.”

Fellow grain grower Ian Hastings labelled the BOM outlooks “absolutely hopeless”.

“Rainfall is critical to us and they (the BOM’s forecasts) are critical failures,” he said.

It appears little has changed since a team led by University of Melbourne veterinarian Andrew Vizard and his colleagues published a damning critique of the BOM’s rainfall outlooks in 2005.

“We absolutely showed they’re (the forecasts) not useful to end users,” Associate Professor Vizard said this week.

“I’m pretty damned sure they haven’t improved.

“You need a big step change from when we did it (the analysis)”.

Prof Vizard said the BOM’s outlooks needed to move beyond maps that simply showed there was a 45 or 65 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall.

“You have to get closer to 100 or zero per cent, and when you say it you have to be right,” he said.

Prof Vizard said getting the outlook wrong caused even more damage.

Former VFF president and Pyramid Hill grain grower Peter Tuohey said “I have no doubts people seek alternatives because of these (BOM) inaccuracies”.

Farmers say the rainfall outlook offers little if any value. Picture: Andy Rogers

VFF Livestock president Leonard Vallance said he could not run a business on the back of the BOM’s outlooks. “If I did, it’d be the same as going down to Southbank and throwing my money on the (casino) tables”.

BOM refuted criticism of its three-month outlooks, with a spokesman saying it had widespread support.

“Feedback from the bureau’s key customers is that our outlooks are widely used and add value in the decision-making process for a number of important sectors, including agriculture, emergency management, and energy,” the BOM spokesman said.

“Substantial investment has been made to upgrade and improve the Bureau of Meteorology’s technology, including the supercomputer and enhanced climate models.

“This has meant our climate outlooks are more accurate and reliable than ever before.”

Australian taxpayers poured $77m into a new Cray XC40 supercomputer for the BOM in 2015 to boost its forecasting performance.

And Prime Minister Scott Morrison last week backed the BOM, stating further investments had been made over the last two budgets into the bureau’s information and communications technologies.

When asked about the inaccuracy of the BOM’s forecasts at last Fridays’ National Drought Summit Mr Morrison compared it to the economic forecasting he commissioned in his former role as Treasurer.

“Well forecasts are exactly that (forecasts),” Mr Morrison said. “The Bureau of Meteorology will always provide the normal qualifications.

“Frankly just as (with) economic forecasters in my old job, you would always find (you) would qualify on the variabilities.”

It was in his role as Treasurer in early 2017 that Mr Morrison forecast wages growth would double within four years and the budget would be in surplus by 2020-21.

Prof Vizard said he would be keen to see Meat and Livestock Australia or Australian Wool Innovation repeat his research, although the BOM needed to provide the data in a format that could readily be used.

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