Bayside electorates Frankston and Mordialloc have recent history of throwing out the government, and there is still time for them to do it again

Two electorates have voted out their MPs in recent times, and at the same time, have chucked out the government. And while Labor is ahead in the polls, there’s still time for the tide to turn by the bay and for history to repeat, writes Matt Johnston.

Frankston and Mordialloc voters have chucked out their MPs at both of the past two state elections.
In doing so, they also changed the government.

Given the right motivation, they won’t hesitate to do it again.

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At the moment, Herald Sun/ YouGov Galaxy polling shows that motivation isn’t quite there.
Labor’s incumbents are narrowly fending off their Liberal opponents, two weeks before polling day.

Both sides will try to take something from the results published today.

For Labor, they are ahead on a two party-preferred basis and have a primary vote in the 40s in critical seats they need to hold to be re-elected.

It’s too early to write off the opposition in electorates along the bay, however.

Latest polling in the Frankston and Mordialloc seats.

Liberal candidates also have a primary vote in the 40s.

While the stark reality is that recently-published polls are yet to show opposition candidates pulling ahead in any of the party’s must-win seats, the Coalition tells its supporters they are tracking in the right direction and can pull ahead on election day.

There are 11 days until most Victorians vote, and Galaxy’s managing director David Briggs says there is time for the tide to shift along the bay.

Given a decent chunk of the 4.1 million registered voters in the state are heading to pre-poll booths as I write, time is running low.

Premier Daniel Andrews and wife Catherine Andrews (centre) meet Laura Mondon (left), seven-year-old Archie and and 11-month-old Harley at Wellington Reserve Community Centre on Monday. Picture: AAP

Some of the big policy areas set to dominate the last couple of weeks in those seats include transport, rising costs, and crime.

As this poll shows, a majority of voters believe that tackling law and order issues must be a priority and not enough has been done by this government.

Crime will get a solid focus in the next fortnight, and not just in the seats of Frankston and Mordialloc.

Matthew Guy on the campaign trail with former Prime Minister John Howard. Picture: Stuart McEvoy

Voters in those seats also need more than just an old-fashioned law and order campaign.

While there will be some chatter about the Greens in the next couple of weeks, the challenge for Labor and Liberal in the three (including Carrum) ultra-marginal bayside seats is to target voters in the middle of the political spectrum and explain why they should be in government.

Whichever party campaigns best on other things that motivate suburban voters — getting home to families after work, paying bills, securing a job — will decide whether the trend of the past two elections continues, or is finally broken.

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