Backroom Baz: Tongues wagging over potential exit by Daniel Andrews

No one expects Daniel Andrews to contest the 2026 Victorian state election, but the big question is: when will he step down?

Just how much longer will Andrews be Premier of Victoria? Picture: Valeriu Campan

Top end of town talks between Daniel Andrews and senior business figures in recent weeks have certainly set tongues wagging.

Just how much longer will Andrews be premier? That question has been subject to much speculation since he romped to a third consecutive election win in November. No one expects him to contest the 2026 election, but the question is: when does he step down?

The most common theory is he notches up 10 years as leader in December 2024, giving him time to open the Metro Tunnel, should it be ready, before passing the baton to premier-in-waiting Jacinta Allan.

That would give her two years to show Victorians what the state would look like under her charge ahead of the 2026 election. It would also allow her to capitalise on the 2026 Commonwealth Games, for which she is currently responsible, to showcase the great work of the Andrews-Allan administration.

But, as good as that theory may be, some are now seriously suggesting Andrews could be gone by Christmas.

And you can bet your bottom dollar that Treasurer Tim Pallas will be hanging on to his coat-tails as he leaves 1 Treasury Place.

The shorter timeline has been prompted by some serious discussions the Premier has been having with the top end of town in recent weeks. These are said to be less about the coming horror budget and more about his next move. People with knowledge of the talks say timelines being discussed mean an Andrews government may not exist in 2024.

Now, anything is possible in the fast-moving world of politics. But watch this space, because Baz suspects there’ll be more to see soon.

Baz has noted a vast improvement in the online presence of opposition leader John Pesutto. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Opposition steps it up

The state opposition has long been lambasted for its abysmal social media presence. Compared to the machine behind Daniel Andrews – who boasts a far greater social media profile than any other leader across the land – the opposition’s efforts have always been amateur hour.

But is change afoot? An advert was posted this week for a social media adviser. The ad demanded video, photography, copywriting, editing and design skills, and an ability to “help build audience and drive engagement”.

Even before the job is filled, Baz has noted a vast improvement in the online presence of opposition leader John Pesutto, who appears to now take a professional photographer with him wherever he goes.

Geoff Shaw on bagpipes.

Hot air a Shaw thing

Baz often wonders what happens to former MPs. Some go on to bigger and better things. Some fade away into blissful obscurity.

Others, like Geoff Shaw, throw on a kilt and put their talents to good use. And so it was this week that Baz’s sources spied the former Frankston MP earning a buck while piping a recent wedding. From all reports, Shaw stole the show, even if his timing was a little off in AC/DC’s It’s A Long Way to the Top (If You Wanna Rock ’n’ Roll). If ever there was a time to shine! It wasn’t that long ago Shaw was in these very pages after announcing his return to politics as Victorian leader of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Given that went nowhere, Baz is pleased to see the former MP putting what so many MPs are full off, hot air, to good use.

Bad news travels fast

A month out from an anticipated “horror budget” and it appears things are becoming very tense inside the government.

Word has reached Baz that all manner of, shall we say muck, hit the fan this week after this very paper reported the pause button was about to be hit on Melbourne’s much longed for Airport Rail.

Sources tell Baz that a witch hunt has been launched to find the source of the leak, with ministers left fuming over reading the well-kept secret in the Herald Sun. It reminds Baz of the similar witch hunt that was launched inside the Department of Health and Human Services after a top secret document outlining planning for Victoria’s pandemic recovery was leaked to this paper. But Baz has come to learn that bad news has a much easier way of finding its way to unwanted places.

Jill Hennessy’s Instagram post amid the Operation Daintree report. Picture: Instagram

Operation mayhem

If you’re going to go incognito while IBAC releases a misconduct probe, you might as well do it in style.

Former health ministers Jenny Mikakos and Jill Hennessy chose very different ways to stay out of the public eye as Operation Daintree published its report into whether their offices, and the premiers, influenced the public service to award grants to a union. Mikakos disappeared off Twitter soon before the report was published but Hennessy (pictured) chose the much more enjoyable option of being in Vietnam. Despite enjoying her time overseas, Baz reckons the probe may have been on her mind as she posted a cryptic photo on Instagram of a sign that read “mayhem”.

Overheard by Baz

“By sacking a highly respected and independent integrity officer the government has shown it will go to any lengths to silence its critics.”

— David Davis (The shadow Special Minister of State reacts to the axing of Parliamentary Budget Officer Anthony Close)

Guess who?

Which three parliamentary amigos returned from a taxpayer-funded jaunt to Thailand this week?

Got any scuttlebutt for Baz?

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Twitter @BackroomBaz