Analysis: Federal election not as clear-cut as polls indicate

All national polls suggests Albanese will win the May election. But strategists know these numbers don’t mean an election walkover.

National poll after national poll suggests Anthony Albanese will romp to victory in May.

This is undoubtedly a strong starting position for Labor once the campaign begins in earnest.

But strategists on both sides know these numbers don’t mean the election will be a walkover — and that’s why they will be closely studying the poll of nine battleground seats in Wednesday’s Herald Sun.

Depending on your political allegiances, there is good news and bad news.

The bottom line, however, is that Scott Morrison is still in the race.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison during a visit to the Gabba Stadium in Brisbane. Picture: Dan Peled

Chisholm, Victoria’s most marginal seat, has been considered an almost certain Labor gain by both sides.

The Liberal primary vote has actually crept up to 45 per cent — within the margin of error, but a fillip for the PM nonetheless — while the government is holding firm in the Queensland seats of Flynn and Longman.

The close race in Labor’s electorate of Gilmore confirms the Coalition’s optimism that it can win with former state minister Andrew Constance, although the results in Dunkley — which covers Frankston and surrounds — suggests the Liberal push there might be too bullish.

Crucially, Albanese remains more of an unknown quantity than Morrison.

In every seat surveyed, more voters were dissatisfied with the PM’s performance than those who were satisfied — including 70 per cent who gave him the thumbs down in Reid.

A voter enters the polling area with his dog in his backpack. Picture: Gary Ramage

His approval rating is similarly poor in Bass, and is offset only by the popularity of local Liberal member Bridget Archer, whose independent streak is working in her favour.

But far more voters don’t have an opinion of Albanese’s performance.

The Coalition has been alive to this for months, hence their political attacks to try and shape a negative perception of him.

Indeed, despite the lack of satisfaction with Morrison, he remains the preferred prime minister in Chisholm, Flynn, Longman and Gilmore — three seats the Coalition wants to keep, and one more it hopes to pick up to offset possible losses elsewhere.

With 60 per cent of voters in Reid rating the government’s performance as poor or very poor over the past three years, it is highly likely to fall, although One Nation’s primary is at 13 per cent from a standing start — a protest vote that could return to the Coalition on polling day.

Swan is also similarly dire for Morrison, but instead of a huge leap in Labor’s primary, one in five voters have shifted to One Nation or Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

Strap in. There’s a long way to go.