ABS tips that Melbourne’s population will hit 12 million by 2066 if high migration and fertility rates continue

Melbourne already feels full and congested with a population of five million. But government experts are predicting it will get much bigger by this mid-century.

Migrants from India are flocking to multicultural Melbourne.

Melbourne’s population will hit 12 million by 2066 with continuing high migration, life expectancy and fertility levels, says a new report.

The massive increase of 7 million people from today’s population would see Melbourne with 1 million more people than Sydney, and Victoria’s population balloon to 14.5 million — more than double what it is today.

Victoria was still the fastest-growing state last year, adding an extra 138,200 people to reach 6.45 million by June 30, says the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Australian Demographic Statistics report.

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Indian migrants Anisha Anjum and husband Aarif Kabir Ahmad with daughter Mirha, one month. Picture: Mark Stewart

Indian migrant Anisha Anjum said her family was thrilled with Melbourne’s multicultural life.

“There are many people from your own community, it’s easy to live here,” she said.

“I’ve been to many cities, but I like Melbourne most because it’s more affordable and there are jobs.”

Planning Minister Richard Wynne was confident rapid population growth could be comfortably absorbed in Melbourne and regional cities such as Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat and Shepparton.

“And despite what people say about the middle-ring suburbs being locked up, that’s not the case,” he said.

“All of the data that we have suggests that all of those established suburbs are doing very well in terms of medium density housing being built there, particularly within 100m of activity centres.”

Migrants from India are flocking to multicultural Melbourne.

In 2017-18, net overseas migration contributed 84,143 people to Victoria’s population, while there were 78,820 births. Victoria also had a net gain of 14,300 people from interstate migration, while New South Wales lost 21,700.

The ABS said with continuing high migration, fertility and life expectancy rates, Melbourne would grow to 9 million by 2046, 10.5 million by 2056 and 12.2 million by 2066.

Melbourne is on track to hit the 12 million mark by 2066.

The report said Australia grew by 390,500 over the year to record a population just under 25 million by June 30.

However, net overseas migration continues to fall — it was 236,700 for the year to June 30, down 10 per cent on the previous year.

Indian-born people were the biggest group with 55,022 people, then the Chinese (45,840), Nepal (20,584), Filipinos (12,156), Malaysians (9335) and Britons (8754).

Over the 20 years to 2018, the proportion of Australians aged 65-plus increased from 12.2 per cent to 15.7 per cent.

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