Turnbull faces federal election wipeout after primary vote crash

COALITION MPs fear an election disaster after the Turnbull Government’s primary vote crashed below 30 per cent in a crucial Queensland by-election on Saturday.

COALITION MPs fear an election disaster after the Turnbull Government’s primary vote crashed below 30 per cent in a crucial Queensland by-election on Saturday.

Some said the government might need to look at changing its corporate tax cuts package and work out a way to combat “Labor’s lies” on health spending.

Serious questions are being raised about the government’s ability to campaign on the ground after the Coalition failed to win two key by-elections.

While Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership is safe, Liberal MPs say there could be a Queensland wipeout that will cost them government, ­following the horror Longman poll.

The government would lose at least five seats in the state if the weekend’s results were replicated at the next federal election, likely to be held in the first half of next year, which would cost it government.

PM TURNBULL FEELS HEAT AFTER LOSSES

BILL SHORTEN CLAIMS VICTORY FOR LABOR

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull speaks during a press conference in Sydney. Picture: AAP Image/Jeremy Ng

Labor claiming victory in four by-elections comes despite Mr Turnbull maintaining his dominant lead over Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister, according to a Newspoll published today in The Australian.

But the government still trails Labor 49-51 on a two-party preferred basis. The Coalition has increased its primary vote to 39 per cent to open a gap of three points over Labor, in a stark contrast to the disappointing result in Longman.

Mr Turnbull said he would “humbly” rethink his policies after Labor claimed victory in four by-elections and the government went down to independent Re­bekha Sharkie in the South Australian seat of Mayo.

Liberal MPs said the government might need to look at changing its corporate tax cuts package and work out a way to combat “Labor’s lies” on health spending. One said the Coalition “stuffed up” its messaging by going negative on Bill Shorten instead of focusing on the issues.

“Labor framed a contrast, we didn’t,” the Liberal MP said.

“They gave people a choice and said: ‘Do you want more money for hospitals or the big banks?’ It was terribly effective.”

Labor centred much of its campaigns in Braddon and Longman on health spending and corporate tax cuts, telling voters it was a choice between “hospitals and big banks”.

“I don’t know what we need to do on the corporate tax cuts, but clearly Labor’s attacks are working and we need to do something,” another Liberal MP said.

Labor leader Bill Shorten arrives to support the party's candidate for the seat of Longman on Saturday. Picture: AAP Image/Dan Peled

The Herald Sun can reveal internal Labor polling suggests the government lost ground during the nine-week campaigns in Longman and the Tasmanian seat of Braddon.

One MP said the 29 per cent primary vote in Longman was “dangerously low”.

The Coalition lost Longman 45-55 on a two-party preferred basis and went down 48-52 in Braddon on last night’s count.

It is believed internal Labor polling showed a huge turnaround in Braddon, tracking at 42 to 58 two-party preferred in early June before steadily increasing and only climbing ahead in recent weeks.

In Longman, Labor’s polling had its two-party preferred vote as low as 47 per cent at the start of the campaign. It is believed internal Coalition polling suggested a tighter contest in both seats from the start.

Labor candidate for Longman Susan Lamb and Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten claim victory in the seat of Longman. Picture: AAP Image/Mick Tsikas

Mr Turnbull said the government would be “carefully considering the analysis of the by-elections”, particularly in Braddon and Longman.

“We will look very seriously and thoughtfully and humbly at the way in which voters have responded,” Mr Turnbull said.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, who would have been under pressure from rival Anthony Albanese had Labor lost a seat, said the results showed the PM was “out of touch”.

“The people want politicians who are fair dinkum and my candidates are more fair dinkum than their candidates and my policies are more fair dinkum than their policies,” Mr Shorten said.

Queensland Liberal senator Ian Macdonald said Mr Turnbull was not the issue and was popular wherever he went.

“I think we just need to broaden the church and do a bit more to attract the battler,” he said.

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